김정은 시대 북한경제의 현황과 전망

Abstract

This paper analyzes the North Korean economy by investigating policies, records, and marketization trends. Even though the North Korean regime has declared that it has pursued economic reform in recent years, policies were devised to reflect discrepancies between market forces and those of state planning. According to Bank of Korea statistics, North Korea’s economy has experienced rising growth rates. Its trade dependence with the outside world has increased and drastically deepened, especially with China. North Korean authorities tried to suppress marketization trends in the initial period of economic development. They tried to solve problems through state planning. North Korean economic conditions did not improve as a result of government initiatives, however. Instead, market forces have become indispensable in the operation of the North Korean economy. North Korean trade with South Korea and China plays an important role in sustaining its economy. International economic sanctions have had a critical impact on the North Korean economy. North Korea will experience another economic crisis if it continues to develop nuclear weapons and missiles. Progressive trends toward marketization have great potential to transform the fundamentals of the planned economy.