김정은 시대 경제정책의 변화 가능성: 새로운 '경제관리방법'을 중심으로

Abstract

This article focuses on the new ‘economic management method’ and examines the possibility for changes of economic policy in Kim Jong-un era. Some argue that the current new economic management method is in fact invalid and in the process of failing, but this seems to be a premature judgment. The new economic management method is still under the experiment and research phase. However, the current initiative and experimentation of economic policy is intimately linked not only to micro-level issues as individual autonomy and incentives of economic agents but also to macro-level issues like financial, distribution system, rationing issues, national pricing, wage, and financial reform issues. Thus, reform in the entire economic system will be inevitable and is expected to has great social repercussions. In addition, conflict between mid-level officials with privileged groups and confusion arising from lack of administrative capabilities will be subjected to considerable trial and error processes. Therefore, the prolonged experiment and research phase continues for the new methods of economic management, it is highly likely that an economic task force is fully devoted in search of a ‘excellent idea.’ Thus, the North Korean leadership may be under great pressure unable to reach a decision for the full-scale implementation of the new economic policy. In this regard, Kim Jong-un may also has instructed to take enough time and not to rush in implementing a new economic measure.