본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

온도가 공격성에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

A Study on the Effect of Temperature on Human Aggression

박정선|최재훈
경찰대학 (Korea National Police University)|2020.06|경찰학연구 (The Journal of Police Science)|제20권 제2호|pp. 119-150|DOI 10.22816/polsci.2020.20.2.005

0

조회

0

다운로드

2

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

공격성Aggression날씨WeatherTemperature온도폭력범죄Violent crime비선형일상활동외부활동External activityRoutine activity. Nonlinear
주제분류법학

초록

본 연구는 인간의 공격성 발현인 폭력범죄 발생에 영향을 미치는 날씨, 특히 온도의 영향에 대해 살펴보았다. 온도가 높아질수록 폭력범죄 발생이 증가한다는 주장에 대해서는 일정한 학문적 합의에 도달하였지만, 온도와 폭력범죄의 구체적인 관계 형태와 직접적인 영향 여부에 대해서는 여전히 학문적 논의가 지속되고 있다. 온도는 공격성뿐만 아니라 사람들의 외부활동 자체에 미치는 영향이 크기 때문에 온도와 공격성의 관계를 정확히 파악하기 위해서는 외부활동을 적절히 통제해줄 필요가 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 폭력범죄에 영향을 미치는 변수로 온도 외에 사람들의 외부활동정도를 나타내는 국도교통량을 연구모형에 추가하여 온도, 외부활동, 폭력범죄 발생의 관계를 심도있게 분석하였다. 분석결과 온도는 폭력범죄에 직접적인 영향을 주는 직접 효과뿐만 아니라, 사람들의 외부활동을 통하여 폭력범죄에 영향을 주는 간접적인 효과도 있음을 확인하였다. 또한 온도와 폭력범죄의 관계는 일정 온도에 이르기까지는 양자가 같이 증가하다가 일정 온도를 지나서는 온도의 증가에 따라 오히려 범죄가 감소하는 비선형관계에 있음을 확인하였다.

Abstract

This study examines the effects of weather, especially temperature, on the incidence of violent crime which is a manifestation of human aggression. Despite a certain amount of consensus among scholars upon an assertion that there is a positive relationship between violent crime and temperature, debate continues on the specific shape of the relationship between temperature and violence and on the presence of direct or effect between the two. Since the temperature has a great influence not only on human aggression but also on opportunities for external activities, it is quite necessary to properly control for external activities in order to understand the relationship between temperature and aggression in a robust way. That is, in-depth analyses were required to reveal the interwind relationship between temperature and violent crime controlling for opportunities which is measured by the volume of road traffic as a proxy for the external activities of people. The results of the study confirm that there is not only direct effect of temperature upon violent crime, but also indirect effect between them through the mediator variable of people's external activities consecutively. It was also confirmed that temperature and violent crime increased simultaneously up to the critical point, but violent crime decreased as temperature went over the critical point showing a nonlinear relationship between the two.

참고문헌 (63)

  1. 서수균, "한국판 공격성 질문지의 타당화 연구", Korean Journal of Clinical Psychology, 21(2), pp.487~501 (2002), 한국임상심리학회[DOI]
  2. 김종민, "기상변화 및 불쾌지수에 따른 범죄발생 예측 모델", 융합보안 논문지, 14(6), pp.89~95 (2014), 한국융합보안학회
  3. 김종민, "기상변화요인과 범죄발생의 관계분석", 융합보안 논문지, 12(6), pp.107~113 (2012), 한국융합보안학회
  4. 노성훈, "날씨와 시간, 그리고 가정폭력", 형사정책연구, 28(3), pp.69~95 (2017), 한국형사법무정책연구원
  5. 신동준, "처벌의 효과: 억제이론에 대한 비판적 검토", 형사정책, 21(2), pp.191~216 (2009), 한국형사정책학회[DOI]
  6. 안성조, "사이코패스의 범죄충동과 통제이론- 사이코패스의 특이성과 통제이론적 접근의 한계", 경찰법연구, 6(1), pp.196~233 (2008), 한국경찰법학회[DOI]
  7. 염윤호, "주류업소밀집도와 폭력범죄율의 관계에 대한 공간회귀분석", 경찰학연구, 18(3), pp.127~148 (2018), 경찰대학[DOI]
  8. 이윤호, "날씨 및 요일특성과 범죄발생의 관계분석 - 서울시 겨울철 범죄발생을 중심으로 -", 한국범죄심리연구, 6(1), pp.208~238 (2010), 한국범죄심리학회
  9. 정신교, "생래적 범죄인론의 형법이론적 검토", 법학연구, 19(2), pp.53~71 (2019), 한국법학회
  10. 주경희, "날씨가 기업 매출에 미치는 영향과 날씨 마케팅 예산의 최적 할당에 관한 연구", 한국경영과학회지, 38(1), pp.153~181 (2013), 한국경영과학회[DOI]
  11. 최재훈, "범죄 발생에 미치는 환경적 요인에 관한 연구: 폭력, 가정폭력, 성폭력, 절도를 중심으로", 한국범죄학, 12(2), pp.159~186 (2018), 대한범죄학회
  12. 허선영, "머신러닝기반 범죄발생 위험지역 예측", 한국지리정보학회지, 21(4), pp.64~80 (2018), 한국지리정보학회[DOI]
  13. Allison, P., "When can you safely ignore multicollinearity", Statistical Horizons, 5(1) (2012)
  14. Althausen, J. D., "The merging of criminology and geography into a course on spatial crime analysis", Journal of Criminal Justice Education, 12(2), pp.367~383 (2001)
  15. Anderson, C. A, "Temperature and Aggression: Ubiquitous Effects of Heat on Occurrence of Human Violence", Psychological Bulletin, 106(1), pp.74~96 (1989)
  16. Anderson, C. A., "Hot years and serious and deadly assault: empirical tests of the heat hypothesis", Journal of personality and social psychology, 73(6), pp.1213~ (1997)
  17. Anderson, C. A., "Temperature, Aggression, and the Negative Affect Escape Model", Psychological Bulletin, 111(2), pp.347~351 (1992)
  18. Anderson, G. B., "Methods to calculate the heat index as an exposure metric in environmental health research", Environmental health perspectives, 121(10), pp.1111~1119 (2013)
  19. Andresen, M. A., "Crime seasonality and its variations across space", Applied Geography, (43), pp.25~35 (2013)
  20. Barnston, A. G, "The effect of weather on mood, productivity, and frequency of emotional crisis in a temperate continental climate", International Journal of Biometeorology, 32(2), pp.134~143 (1988)
  21. Baron, R. A., "Aggression and heat: Mediating effects of prior provocation and exposure to an aggressive model", Journal of personality and social psychology, 31(5), pp.825~ (1975)
  22. Baron, R. A., "Aggression and heat: The influence of ambient temperature, negative affect, and a cooling drink on physical aggression", Journal of personality and social psychology, 33(3), pp.245~ (1976)
  23. Bell, P. A., "In defense of the negative affect escape model of heat and aggression", Psychological Bulletin, (111), pp.342~346 (1992)
  24. Berkowitz, L., "Some effects of thoughts on anti-and prosocial influences of media events: a cognitive-neoassociation analysis", Psychological bulletin, 95(3), pp.410~427 (1984)
  25. Breetzke, G. D., "Seasonal assault and neighborhood deprivation in South Africa: some preliminary findings", Environment and Behavior,, 44(5), pp.641~667 (2012)
  26. Brunsdon, C., "The influence of weather on local geographical patterns of police calls for service", Environment and Planning B-Planning & Design, 36(5), pp.906~926 (2009)
  27. Bushman, B. J., "Effects of alcohol on human aggression:An intergrative research review", Psychological bulletin, 107(3), pp.341~354 (1990)
  28. Bushman, B. J., "Is the curve relating temperature to aggression linear or curvilinear? A response to Bell(2005) and to Cohn and Rotton(2005)", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 89(1), pp.74~77 (2005)
  29. Buss, A. H., "The aggression questionnaire", Journal of personality and social psychology, 63(3), pp.452~ (1992)
  30. Ceccato, V, "Homicide in Sao Paulo, Brazil: Assessing spatial-temporal and weather variations", Journal of Environmental Psychology, 25(3), pp.307~321 (2005)
  31. Cohen, L. E., "Social change and crime rate trends A routine activity approach", American sociological review, 44(4), pp.588~608 (1979)
  32. Cohn, E. G., "The prediction of police calls for service: The influence of weather and temporal variables on rape and domestic violence", Journal of Environmental Psychology, 13(1), pp.71~83 (1993)
  33. Cohn, E. G., "Weather, seasonal trends and property crimes in Minneapolis, 1987–1988. A moderator-variable time-series analysis of routine activities", Journal of Environmental Psychology, 20(3), pp.257~272 (2000)
  34. Cohn, E. G., "Even criminals take a holiday: Instrumental and expressive crimes on major and minor holidays", Journal of Criminal Justice, 31(4), pp.351~360 (2003)
  35. Crane, C. A., "The proximal effects of acute alcohol consumption on male-to-female aggression: A meta-analytic review of the experimental literature", Trauma, Violence, & Abuse, 17(5), pp.520~531 (2016)
  36. DeFronzo, J., "Climate and crime: Tests of an FBI assumption", Environment and Behavior, 16(2), pp.185~210 (1984)
  37. Denissen, J. J., "The effects of weather on daily mood: a multilevel approach", Emotion, 8(5), pp.662~ (2008)
  38. Griffit, W., "Hot and crowded: Influence of population density and temperature on interpersonal affective behavior", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 17(1), pp.92~ (1971)
  39. Griffitt, W., "Environmental effects on interpersonal affective behavior:Ambient effective temperature and attraction", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 15(3), pp.240~244 (1970)
  40. Hand C, "Increasing returns to information: further evidence from the UK film market", Applied Economics Letters, 8(6), pp.419~421 (2001)
  41. Harries, K. D., "Seasonality and assault:Explorations in inter‐neighborhood variation, Dallas 1980", Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 74(4), pp.590~604 (1984)
  42. Hawkins, L. H, "The influence of air ions, temperature and humidity on subjective wellbeing and comfort", Journal of Environmental Psychology, 1(4), pp.279~292 (1981)
  43. Hipp, J. R., "Crimes of opportunity or crimes of emotion?", Testing two explanations of seasonal change in crime, Social Forces, 82(4), pp.1333~1372 (2004)
  44. Hoechle, D, "Robust standard errors for panel regressions with cross-sectional dependence", The stata journal, 7(3), pp.281~312 (2007)
  45. Ito, T. A., "Alcohol and aggression: A meta-analysis on the moderating effects of inhibitory cues, triggering events, and self-focused attention", Psychological bulletin, 120(1), pp.60~ (1996)
  46. LeBeau, J. L., "Changes in calls for police service with changes in routine activities and the arrival and passage of weather fronts", Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 6(3), pp.269~291 (1990)
  47. LeBeau, J. L., "Introduction: Progress in research on the geography of crime", The Professional Geographer, 63(2), pp.161~173 (2011)
  48. Lowman, J, "Conceptual issues in the geography of crime: Toward a geography of social control", Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 76(1), pp.81~94 (1986)
  49. Mares, D. M., "Climate change and crime revisited: An exploration of monthly temperature anomalies and UCR crime data", Environment and Behavior, 51(5), pp.502~529 (2019)
  50. McLean, I., "Climatic effects on incidence of sexual assault", Journal of forensic and legal medicine, 14(1), pp.16~19 (2007)
  51. Pilcher, J. J., "Effects of hot and cold temperature exposure on performance: a meta-analytic review", Ergonomics, 45(10), pp.682~698 (2002)
  52. Reed, W. R., "Which panel data estimator should I use?", Applied economics, 43(8), pp.985~1000 (2011)
  53. Robinson M. B, "Lifestyles, routine activities, and residential burglary victimization", Journal of Crime and Justice, 22(1), pp.27~56 (1999)
  54. Rotton, J., "Global warming and US crime rates: An application of routine activity theory", Environment and Behavior, 35(6), pp.802~825 (2003)
  55. Rotton, J., "Air pollution, weather, and violent crimes:concomitant time-series analysis of archival data", Journal of personality and social psychology, 49(5), pp.1207~1220 (1985)
  56. Saneinejad, S., "Modelling the impact of weather conditions on active transportation travel behaviour", Transportation research part D: transport and environment, 17(2), pp.129~137 (2012)
  57. Schinasi, L. H., "A time series analysis of associations between daily temperature and crime events in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania", Journal of urban health, 94(6), pp.892~900 (2017)
  58. Schneider, F. W., "Helping behavior in hot, comfortable, and cold temperatures: A field study", Environment and Behavior, 12(2), pp.231~240 (1980)
  59. Simister, J., "Thermal stress in the USA: effects on violence and on employee behaviour", Stress and Health: Journal of the International Society for the Investigation of Stress, 21(1), pp.3~15 (2005)
  60. Štulec, I, "Weather impact on retail sales: How can weather derivatives help with adverse weather deviations?", Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, (49), pp.1~10 (2019)
  61. Tompson, L. A., "Testing time-sensitive influences of weather on street robbery", Crime science, 4(1), pp.8~ (2015)
  62. Zacharias, J., "Microclimate and downtown open space activity", Environment and Behavior, 33(2), pp.296~315 (2001)
  63. Zhang, L., "A multilevel analysis of the risk of household burglary in the city of Tianjin, China", The British Journal of Criminology, 47(6), pp.918~937 (2007)

관련 논문AI추천

온도와 사회구조적 요인이 폭력범죄에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구박정선, 최재훈경찰대학 · 경찰학연구2021 · 제21권 제4호기후변화와 범죄발생: 국내외 연구 추세와 형사정책적 함의라광현한국형사정책학회 · 형사정책2020 · 제31권 제4호날씨가 성범죄에 미치는 영향 연구 - 공격성 이론을 중심으로 -김종윤, 박정선치안정책연구소 · 치안정책연구2019 · 제33권 제2호코로나19, 계절, 그리고 범죄: 서울시 발생 범죄를 중심으로김병민, 노성훈한국경찰학회 · 한국경찰학회보2022 · 제24권 제5호방범용 CCTV의 계절별 범죄예방효과이주락, 임형진한국경찰학회 · 한국경찰학회보2014 · 제16권 제2호여름철 낮 시간대 교통사고에 대한 고온의 영향박종철, 채여라, 최서형기후연구소 · 기후연구2019 · 제14권 제3호

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (7건)

통신수사의 기본권 침해에 관한 연구오상지pp. 1-30경찰 무인비행장치의 운용규칙 분석과 방향성 고찰손현종, 정지수pp. 31-60경찰성과 영향요인에 대한 메타분석 연구장재성pp. 61-92비정형 데이터 네트워크 기법의 수사 활용 연구: 보이스피싱 대응 수사 지원을 중심으로김희두, 장광호pp. 93-118집회·시위 관리정책에서 ʻ한국형 대화경찰ʼ 제도의 의미정준선pp. 151-180
원문 보기