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온도와 사회구조적 요인이 폭력범죄에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

A Study on the Effects of Temperature and Social Structural Factors on Violent Crimes

박정선|최재훈
경찰대학 (Korea National Police University)|2021.12|경찰학연구 (The Journal of Police Science)|제21권 제4호|pp. 107-136|DOI 10.22816/polsci.2021.21.4.005

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참고문헌

키워드

상호작용temperatureviolent crimeinteractions온도폭력범죄사회구조적 요인social structural factors가변적 영향.variable effects.
주제분류법학

초록

본 연구는 온도 및 사회구조적 요인이 결합하는 경우에 폭력범죄에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 살펴보았다. 온도가 높아질수록 폭력범죄가 증가하였지만, 일정 수준 이상을 초과하면 오히려 폭력범죄가 감소하는 현상이 나타났다. 사회구조적 요인 중 빈곤, 상업화정도, 인구밀도가 폭력범죄와 밀접한 관계가 있어, 지역이 빈곤할수록, 상업화정도가 강할수록, 인구밀도가 높을수록 폭력범죄가 더 많이 발생하는 것으로 나타났다. 그런데 이러한 사회구조적 요인의 효과는 다른 요인과의 상호작용에 의해 차별화되는 것으로 나타났다. 가령, 빈곤과 상업화정도는 온도와 결합하는 경우 폭력범죄가 더 많이 발생하는 상승효과가 나타났다. 그리고 사람들의 외부활동을 측정한 국도교통량도 상업화정도와 결합하는 경우에 상승효과가 나타났다. 반면, 국도교통량이 빈곤과 인구밀도와 결합할 경우에는 폭력범죄가 오히려 감소하는 감쇠효과가 나타났다. 이를 통해 사회구조적 요인에 따른 지역적 속성은 불변적인 것이 아니라 온도 및 유동인구에 따라 가변적인 것을 확인하였다.

Abstract

This study examines how temperature and social structural factors combine together and simultaneously affect violent crimes. As the temperature increases violent crimes increase in general, but if it exceeds a a certain level violent crimes decrease. Among the social structural factors, poverty, commercialization and population density are closely related to violent crimes so that the poorer a region is, the stronger the degree of commercialization is, and the higher the population density is, the more violent crimes occur. However it was found that the effects of social structural factors were conditioned on temperature in such a way that the combined effect of both has a synergistic effect on violent crime. For example, when poverty and commercialization are combined with temperature, there is a synergistic effect with which more violent crimes occur than expected. In addition when road traffic volume measuring people's external activities was combined with the degree of commercialization, a synergistic effect on violent crime appeared again. In contrast, when traffic volume was combined with poverty and population density, violent crimes rather decreased. Through this, it was confirmed that the characteristics of the region affecting the crime were not consistent and invariant, but rather varied and diverse by the variance of temperature and population mobility.

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