기후변화와 범죄발생: 국내외 연구 추세와 형사정책적 함의
Climate change and crime: review and implications on criminal justice
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이 연구의 목적은 기후 변화가 범죄에 미치는 영향을 설명하는 이론들 및 국내외 연구들을 검토하여 형사정책적 시사점을 도출하는데 있다. 다만 기후와 범죄 간의 관계를 설명하는 이론 및 실증연구가 비교적 드물다는 점에서, 이 연구에서는 날씨 요인과 범죄 간의 관계 또한 연구의 범위에 포함하여 연구하였다. 지금까지 기후 혹은 날씨와 범죄 간의 실증적인 관계는 기존의 범죄학적 개념 및 이론을 활용하여 주로 검정되어 왔다. 다만, 최근 Agnew가 기후변화가 범죄에 미치는 영향에 관한 이론적 모델을 제시하였으며, 기후, 공격성, 자기통제력에 관한 이론이 발표되는 등 기후와 범죄 간의 관계를 종합적으로 이해하기 위한 이론화 노력이 기울여지고 있다. 실증적인 측면에서, 기후 혹은 날씨와 범죄 간의 관계는 외국에서 활발하게 분석되고 있으며, 국내에서도 2010년대 들어 일부 연구자들의 관심을 받고 있다. 이들 선행연구들은 일반적으로 기후 혹은 날씨 요인 중 기온과 범죄발생(특히, 폭력범죄) 간의 정(+)적인 관계를 상당히 안정적으로 발견하고 있으나, 이들 간의 관계가 얼마나 강한가 혹은 기온의 증가가 얼마만큼의 범죄를 증가시킬 것인가에 대해서는 학술적 합의에 도달하지는 못한 것으로 보인다. 이들 이론 및 선행연구 결과를 바탕으로 몇 가지 학술적, 정책적 함의를 제시하였다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to review and examine theories and empirical studies that explain the impact of climate change on crime and to derive policy implications. Unfortunately, theories and empirical studies explaining the relationship between climate and crime are relatively rare. Thus, the current study also included the relationship between weather factors and crime. To date, the empirical relationship between climate or weather and crime has been largely tested using existing criminological concepts and theories. However, Agnew recently proposed a theoretical model of the impact of climate change on crime, and theories on climate, aggression, and self-control are being proposed, and efforts are being made to comprehensively understand the relationship between climate and crime. On the empirical side, the relationship between climate or weather and crime is being actively analyzed in foreign countries. These previous studies generally find a fairly stable positive relationship between temperature and crime (especially violent crime) among climate or weather factors, but there seems to be no academic consensus on the strength of the relationship between climate/weather and crime. Based on the review of these theories and empirical studies, some academic and policy implications were suggested.
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