코로나19, 계절, 그리고 범죄: 서울시 발생 범죄를 중심으로
COVID-19, Seasons, and Crime: Focusing on Crimes in Seoul
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초록
코로나 팬데믹은 지구촌 전 지역에서 거의 모든 부문에 영향을 미치고 있으며, 범죄 현상도 예외는 아니다. 국내에서는 코로나와 범죄 사이의 연관성에 관해 몇몇 연구들이 수행되었다. 하지만 이들 연구는 정부의 방역 조치를 고려하지 않은 채 코로나 팬데믹 이전과 이후의 범죄 발생 규모를 비교하는 데 그치고 있다. 본 연구는 사회적 거리두기의 단계적 조치가 범죄유형별로 범죄 발생 정도에 어떻게 영향을 미쳤는지 조사하고, 아울러 사회적 거리두기와 계절이 어떻게 상호작용적으로 또는 독립적으로 범죄 발생에 영향을 미쳤는지 확인하는 데 목적을 두고 있다. 이를 위해 강간(강제추행), 절도, 폭력의 범죄 통계자료를 활용하여 다중회귀분석을 실시하였다. 그 결과 사회적 거리두기가 강화될수록 강간(강제추행)과 절도의 발생 건수가 감소하였다. 계절적 요인의 경우 강간(강제추행)은 가을과 겨울, 절도는 겨울, 그리고 폭력은 여름이 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 사회적 거리두기와 강간(강제추행) 간의 부적 관계는 계절적 요인 중 가을에 의해 조절되는 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has a huge impact on the entire global community in almost every aspect, and crime is no exception. A few Korean studies have been conducted regarding the association between COVID-19 and crime. Unfortunately, most of them simply compared crime occurrence before and after the pandemic without taking into account the preventive response of the government to curve the COVID-19 epidemic. The current study purports to investigate the impact of social distancing measures upon crime. In addition, this study attempts to examine how seasonality independently and interactively affects crime occurrence. A multiple regression analysis was performed using the official crime data collected by the Korean Police Agency. It was found that social distancing was negatively related to the occurrence of rape(indecent assault) and theft. The seasonal factors were significantly associated with rape(indecent assault), theft and assault. Finally, the negative relationship between social distancing and rape(indecent assault) was moderated by fall of seasonal factors.
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