국제수지제약과 경제성장: 중국과 인도 비교 분석
Balance of Payments Constraint and Economic Growth : Comparative Analysis of China and India
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본 연구는 1981~2014년 기간 동안 중국과 인도의 자료를 이용하여 단순 국제수지균형제약 성장모형(Thirlwall, 1979)과 수출과 자본유입을 포함한 Thirlwall & Hussain(1982)의 확장형 국제수지균형제약 성장모형을 이용하여 경제성장률을 추정하였다. 추정한 결과, 중국은 단순 국제수지균형제약 성장모형이 상대적으로 더 적합하고, 인도의 경우 수출과 자본유입이 포함된 확장형 국제수지균형제약 성장모형 적용이 더 적합하다는 사실을 발견하였다. 이는 중국경제성장에서는 자본유입보다는 상대적으로 수출이 중요한 역할을 하고 있으며, 인도의 경우는 수출과 자본유입이 경제성장에 중요한 역할을 하고 있다는 것을 보여준다. 본 연구의 결과는 경제성장률을 지속하기 위해서는 중국은 수출과 더불어 생산효율성 증대, 내수 진작과 같은 성장정책이 요구되고 인도는 수출촉진정책을 확대하고, 수입은 축소하는 방안이 요구된다는 점을 정책적 시사점을 제시하고 있다. 특히 인도에게는 국제수지제약을 완화할 수 있는 외국인직접투자 유입정책도 중요한 만큼 향후 이러한 정책도 요구된다. 이와 더불어 국내가격의 상승은 수출단가의 상승으로 연결되어 경제성장률을 축소시키고 있다는 점에서 물가안정이 경제성장에 도움을 준다는 정책적 시사점도 제시하였다.
Abstract
This study estimates the economic growth rates with the balance of payments constrained growth model(the simple model) developed by Thirwal(1979) and the model including capital inflow extended by Thirlwall & Hussian(1982)(the extended model) using Chinese and Indian data during 1981～2014. The results show that the simple model gives a closer prediction of the Chinese actual growth rate than the extended model does, while the extended model is more fitted for India than the simple model. It implies that export is important to Chinese growth while export and capital inflow play a role in raising the rate for Indian growth. The results give a political implication that in order to increase the growth rates, China should increase in export and expand the domestic market, and India should promote export and reduce import. In order to reduce the pressure of balance of payments constraints, the inducing scheme of FDI is also important to India. Moreover, this study suggests that since increasing in domestic prices raises the unit price of export, India has to try to reduce the domestic price level.
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