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한국의 국제수지 제약 성장에 관한 연구: 수입유발형 수출구조를 중심으로

A Study on Korea's Balance-of-Payment Constrained Growth: An Import Dependent Export Structure

김정훈|박원익
한국사회경제학회 (Korean Association for Political Economy)|2023.02|사회경제평론 (The Review of Social & Economic Studies)|제36권 제1호|pp. 39-81|DOI 10.17964/rses.2023.36.1.39

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키워드

한국경제Korean Economy수출주도 성장Thirlwall의 법칙Export-Led GrowthThirlwall’s Law
주제분류경제학

초록

지난 50여 년간 빠른 성장을 해온 한국경제는 ‘수출주도 성장전략’을 일관되게 추진해왔다. 본 연구의 주요 목적은 Thirlwall이 제시한 ‘국제수지 제약 성장모형’ 에 ‘수입유발형 수출구조’라는 한국경제의 특수성을 반영한 추가적 제약조건이 장기 경제성장률에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 분석하는 데 있다. 실증분석 결과, 한국의 경제성장 여력은 글로벌 금융위기 전후로 감소하였음을 확인할 수 있었다. 국내 지출의 수입의존도가 감소하는 등 경제성장에 유리한 변화도 일부 있었지만, 수출의 해외소득 탄력성이 감소하고 수출의 수입의존도가 증가하면서 경제성장 잠재력이 전반적으로 약화하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 추정 결과에 따르면, 수출의 수입의존도가 완화될 경우 최대 0.57%p의 장기 경제성장률 증대를 기대할 수 있다. 향후 한국경제의 장기 성장잠재력 제고를 위해서는 수출 경쟁력 강화와 함께 수출의 수입유발효과와 수입의 소득탄력성을 낮추는 정책적 노력이 필요하다. 아울러 한국경제가 추격경제를 넘어 선도경제로 전환하는 국면에서 사회 저변의 혁신역량을 끌어 올리는 전략을 추진해야 할 것이다.

Abstract

The Korean economy has grown rapidly over the past 50 years and has consistently pursued an ‘exportled growth strategy’. The main purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the additional constraints reflecting the ‘importdependent export structure’ in the ‘balanceofpayments constraint growth model’. Our empirical results show that the longterm equilibrium growth rate in Korea has decreased since the global financial crisis. Although there were some changes favorable to economic growth, such as a decrease in the dependence of domestic expenditures on imports, the elasticity of exports to foreign income decreased and the dependence of exports on imports increased, which led to a weakened growth potential. In addition, according to the estimation results, if export dependence on imports is eased, the longterm economic growth rate could increase by up to 0.57%p. In order to enhance Korea’s economic growth potential, it is necessary to strengthen export competitiveness and reduce the import-inducing effect of exports and the income elasticity of imports. To this end, diversifying export markets and expanding support for mid-sized companies’ development of core components and materials are needed. Also, it is necessary to improve the procurement network for raw materials and core parts. At a time when the Korean economy is transitioning from a catch-up economy to a leading economy, a strategy to enhance the innovative capacity of society is essential.

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