An Analysis of the Effects of the Foreign Capital Inflows on Economic Growth in China
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초록
1970년대 후반 개혁개방정책을 추구한 이래 중국은 획기적인 경제성장을 이룩하였다. 특히 외국인 직접투자를 중심으로 한 외자도입을 통한 고도성장은 일반적으로 중국을 외자도입 주도형 성장이라고 평가한다. 이런 맥락에서 본 연구는 중국의 외자주도형 성장이라는 평가가 과연 타당성을 갖는 가설인지 Voivodas의 two gap model을 이용하여 1983 -2004년의 시계열 자료를 기초로 회기분석을 통하여 검증해 보았다. 그 분석결과는 Voivodas의 외환제약조건 모형 하에서 외자도입이 중국의 경제성장과 정(正)의 상관관계를 보였으나 외자도입의 긍정적 효과가 설정된 가설을 확신시켜 줄 만큼의 의미성을 갖지 못하였다. 그리고 외자도입과 중국의 국내투자 관계라는 중계적 연결관계의 분석결과는 정(正)의 상관관계를 나타내었을 뿐 아니라 도입된 외자가 확실히 투자로 연결되었다는 의미 있는 통계적 결과를 보여 주었다. 결론적으로 Voivodas Model을 통한 외자도입과 경제성장의 관계분석 결과는 중국의 외자도입이 경제성장에 긍정적 역할은 하였지만 일반적으로 인식되고 있는 것처럼 결정적 요인변수로 보기는 어렵다. 외자도입이 중국의 국내투자와 상당히 의미 있는 연결 상관관계가 있다는 것이 입증되었는데도 정작 경제성장에는 큰 의미성을 보여 주지 못했다는 검증결과는 향후 중국이 생산성 향상과 투자승수의 극대화에 역점을 두어야 한다는 중요한 정책적 의미를 제시해 준다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that the Chinese economy has developed by way of the foreign capital-oriented growth path. More specifically, I attempted to examine whether such strategic factors as capital goods imports, exports, gross domestic investment, domestic savings in the Voivodas' two gap model reinforced each other through the initiation of the foreign capital inflows, resulting in a substantial growth rate. The regressions were conducted among the relevant variables of Voivodas' model under the foreign exchange and savings constraints on growth and the statistical results of the hypothesis test by using Chinese time series data of 1983-2004 presented: Together with exports, foreign capital inflows under the foreign exchange constraint model exerted positive effects on the China's economic growth; However, the beneficial effects of the foreign capital inflows were not significant enough to ensure the foreign capital inflow-oriented growth. The intermediate links of the relationship between foreign capital inflows and capital goods imports as well as gross domestic investment turned out to be positive and significant under the foreign exchange constraint models of Voivodas. Thus, the hypothesis that China has developed through the driving force of foreign capital inflow is hybrid and inconclusive, which provide us with significant policy implications that the Chinese economy has to put more emphasis on increasing factor productivity and maximizing investment multiplier in order to ensure a significant influence on the overall rate of economic growth.
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