수출과 경제성장 관계에 있어 FDI의 역할: 중국의 실증분석 사례
The Effectiveness of FDI in the Causality between Export and Economic Growth in China
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본 연구는 중국의 수출과 경제성장 간의 인과관계를 분석하기 위하여 기존의 연구와는 다르게 FDI와 수입을 포함시키고 1983∼2008년 연간 자료를 이용하였다. 본 연구는 시계열 분석을 위해 변수들의 안정성을 검정하고 불안정적인 경우 공적분, Granger 인과관계 검정 및 VECM 분석을 적용하였다. 실증결과에 의하면 FDI와 수입을 고려한 수출과 경제성장 간에는 장기적인 안정 관계가 존재할 뿐만 아니라 수출과 경제성장 간에는 양방향 인과관계가 존재한다. 또한 FDI와 경제성장 간에 양방향 인과관계가 있고 FDI에서 수출로의 단일 방향 인과관계가 있는 것으로 나타나 FDI는 경제성장에 직접적인 영향을 미치고 수출을 통해 경제성장에 간접적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 충격반응함수와 분산분해를 통해 FDI의 설명력을 분석한 결과, 수출과 경제성장에 커다란 역할을 한 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 수출과 경제성장 간의 인과관계를 분석함에 있어서 FDI를 고려할 때 두 변수간의 인과관계에 대한 신뢰도를 높일 뿐만 아니라 정책적 시사점도 다르게 유추될 수 있음에 유의해야 할 것이다.
Abstract
An empirical study on factors determining the economic growth of China is mainly time series analysis considering only two variables, exports and GDP. In dealing with this topic, there are some studies on causalities between export and GDP in China by adding import. However, there are very few studies considering foreign direct investment (FDI) even though the effect of FDI on GDP is very significant after economic reform in China. Unlike previous studies, this paper analyzes the causalities between exports and GDO in China by adding import and FDI by using annual data during the period of 1983∼2008. This study supports that there exists cointegraion relationship among four variables (export, FDI, import and GDP). The results of Granger causality test and VECM show that there is bilateral causality relation not only between export and GDP, but also between FDI and GDP. In addition there is one way-directional causality that FDI has affected GDP in China. Therefore, we can conclude that FDI can directly affect economic growth and also can indirectly affect economic growth through the export. Therefore, when we study the causality between export and economic growth by considering FDI, the empirical result will be more significant.
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