结構彈性與中韩贸易绩效关係影响機制研究 — 基于中国省级面板数據的实證分析
Structural Elasticity and Trade Performance in China–Korea Electromechanical Industries: Evidence from Provincial Panel Data
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초록
本文利用2010—2024年中国31个省份与韩国之间的面板数据，构建机电产业结构弹性的正交残差指标，系统分析了结构调整能力对中韩贸易绩效的影响机制。研究结果表明，机电结构弹性显著促进了中国对韩贸易绩效，在多种模型设定与稳健性检验下结论均保持稳健。贸易依存度对结构弹性与贸易绩效的关系具有显著调节作用，高度依存地区的促进效应更为明显。创新水平虽呈现正向趋势，但其转化效率仍有限，说明创新投入尚未充分转化为外贸竞争优势。制度型开放环境可有效放大结构优化带来的经济效应，显示结构优势与制度支持之间存在协同关系。研究认为，机电产业结构弹性体现了产业体系在外部变化下的自我调整与适应能力，通过要素优化、技术进步与制度协调共同推动贸易绩效提升。本文的结论不仅丰富了中韩产业合作与区域协同发展的实证研究，也为提升中国机电产业竞争力与外贸韧性提供了政策参考。
Abstract
Using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces during 2010–2024, this study constructs an orthogonalized residual indicator of electromechanical industrial structural elasticity to examine the mechanism through which structural adjustment capacity affects China–Korea trade performance. The empirical results demonstrate that structural elasticity significantly enhances trade performance, and the findings remain robust across various model specifications. Trade dependence exerts a moderating effect on the relationship between structural elasticity and trade performance, with stronger impacts observed in highly dependent regions. Although innovation exhibits a positive trend, its conversion efficiency remains limited, suggesting that R&D inputs have not yet been fully transformed into export competitiveness. Institutional openness amplifies the economic effects of structural optimization, indicating a complementary relationship between structural advantages and institutional support. Electromechanical structural elasticity reflects the adaptive capacity of industrial systems under external changes, improving trade performance through factor optimization, technological progress, and institutional coordination. The findings enrich empirical research on China–Korea industrial cooperation and regional coordination while offering policy implications for enhancing the competitiveness and resilience of China’s electromechanical trade sector.