본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

선거기간 설문조사의 응답률 변화 연구: 설문응답 모형 및 설문조사방식을 기반으로

Trends in Survey Response Rates during Election Periods in South Korea: Two-phases of Survey Response Model and Survey Modes

0

조회

0

다운로드

4

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

주제분류신문방송학

초록

국내 설문조사의 낮은 신뢰도 및 과도한 활용에 대해서 꾸준한 비판이 이어지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 최근 3년간 중앙선거여론조사 심의위원회에 공개된 모든 설문조사 결과를 통해 설문조사 응답률의 변화패턴을 알아보았다. 구체적으로 설문조사 응답률의 시간적 변화추이와 함께 선거기간이 아닌 기간에 비해 선거기간의 응답률은 어떤 특징을 갖는지 살펴보았다. 이를 위해 연구 설계의 측면에서 다음의 두 가지를 고려하였다. 첫째, 설문응답 2단계 모형을 도입하여 설문조사의 접촉단계, 응답단계 각각에 서 얻은 접촉률 및 협조율을 분석대상으로 설정하였다. 둘째, ARSㆍ전화면접 및 유무선 전화조사 등 설문조사의 진행방식에 따라 개별적인 모형을 추정함으로써 조사방식 효과를 점검하였다. 즉 본 연구는 ‘선거’라는 상황적 요인에 따르는 접촉률 및 협조율의 변화패턴을 중심으로, 국내 설문조사 결과들을 설문조사방식별로 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 전반적인 설문조사 응답률은 시간변화에 따라 감소하는 추세로 나타났으나, 선거기간에는 조사방식과 무관하게 응답률이 증가하는 특이점이 발견되었다. 이후 연구결과의 함의와 선거여론조사 활용방안을 논의하였다.

Abstract

In South Korea, it has long been disputed that surveys are being abused and misused. This study examines the chronological change in response rates of election polls, conducted and released from 2018 to 2021 on National Election Survey Deliberation Commission. We focus on temporal changes in response rates between election periods and non-election periods, along with overall time trends. In terms of research design, our research has two distinctive features. First, we analyzed ‘contact rate’ and ‘cooperation rate’ using two-phases model of survey response. Contact rates and cooperation rates are calculated at contact phase and response phase, respectively. Second, to gauge the survey mode effects, we estimated multi-level models separately per survey mode. By measuring the changes in contact rates and cooperation rates, presumably contingent on the contextual factor ‘election,’ this study carried out a close inspection on survey results in South Korea. We found that response rates continue to decrease over time; however, they tend to increase during election periods, irrespective of survey mode. Theoretical and practical implications are also discussed.

참고문헌 (49)

  1. 구본상, "ARS 조사방식과 젊은 연령대 여성 표집의 실패: 정치적 의견이 강한 유권자들 비율에서의 성별 차이를 중심으로", 조사연구, 18(1), pp.31~60 (2017), 한국조사연구학회[DOI]
  2. 도묘년, "선거여론조사 예측성의 결정요인: 21대 국회의원 선거 무선전화 조사방식의 영향을 중심으로", 국제정치연구, 23(4), pp.85~114 (2020), 동아시아국제정치학회[DOI]
  3. "총선 여론조사, 누가 얼마나 의뢰했나: 85%는 언론사 의뢰 ... 언론은 여론조사 옥석 가릴 전문성 갖춰야" (2020)[URL]
  4. 박종희, "제18대 대선 여론조사에서 나타난 조사기관 편향", 조사연구, 14(1), pp.1~30 (2013), 한국조사연구학회
  5. 양승찬, "한국의 선거 여론조사와 그 보도에 대한 이슈 고찰", 커뮤니케이션 이론, 3(1), pp.83~119 (2007), 한국언론학회
  6. 이준웅, "제17대 총선 예측 조사의 문제: 조사거절자와 응답불성실자 편향을 중심으로", 언론정보연구, 41(1), pp.110~135 (2004)
  7. 이해용, "층화변수로 사용되는 인구통계학적변인이 사회여론조사에 미치는 효과", Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society, 9(4), pp.1757~1770 (2007), 한국자료분석학회
  8. "정치인에게 여론조사는 하느님인가?" (2021)[URL]
  9. 정한울, "외주민주주의 시대의 선거여론조사: 4·29 재보궐 선거 여론조사의 문제점과 개선방안", EAI Opinion Review (2015)
  10. 허순영, "전화 선거여론조사에서 무응답률 증가로 인한 편의와 응답률 제고 방안", 한국데이터정보과학회지, 27(2), pp.315~325 (2016), 한국데이터정보과학회[DOI]
  11. AAPOR, "Standard Definitions: Final Dispositions of Case Codes and Outcome Rates for Surveys" (2016), The American Association for Public Opinion Research
  12. Berinsky, A. J., "Measuring public opinion with surveys", Annual Review of Political Science, 20, pp.309~329 (2017)[DOI]
  13. Joseph Berkson, "Application to the Logistic Function to Bio-Assay", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 39(227), pp.357~365 (1944), JSTOR[DOI]
  14. Beullens, K., "Response rates in the european social survey: Increasing, decreasing, or a matter of fieldwork efforts?", Survey Methods: Insights from the Field, pp.1~12 (2018)[DOI]
  15. Joshua J. Bon, "Polling bias and undecided voter allocations: US presidential elections, 2004–2016", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 182(2), pp.467~493 (2018), Wiley[DOI]
  16. J. Michael Brick, "Explaining Rising Nonresponse Rates in Cross-Sectional Surveys", The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 645(1), pp.36~59 (2013), SAGE Publications[DOI]
  17. Converse, J., "Survey research in the United States: Roots and emergence 1890-1960" (1987), University of California Press
  18. Norman T. Bruvold, "A model for estimating the response rate to a mailed survey", Journal of Business Research, 16(2), pp.101~116 (1988), Elsevier BV[DOI]
  19. Cornesse, C., "Is there an association between survey characteristics and representativeness? A meta-analysis", Survey Research Methods, 12, pp.1~13 (2018)[DOI]
  20. Curtin, R., "Changes in telephone survey nonresponse over the past quarter century", Public Opinion Quarterly, 69, pp.87~98 (2005)[DOI]
  21. de Leeuw, E., "The Sage Handbook of Survey Methodology", pp.142~156 (2016), Sage Publications
  22. de Leeuw, E., "International nonresponse trends across countries and years: An analysis of 36 years of Labour Force Survey data", Survey Methods: Insights from the Field, pp.1~11 (2018)[DOI]
  23. Dillman, D. A., "Internet, phone, mail, and mixed-mode surveys: The tailored design method" (2014), John Wiley
  24. David Dutwin, "Trends in Telephone Outcomes, 2008–2015", Survey Practice, 9(3), pp.1~9 (2016), Survey Practice[DOI]
  25. David Flath, "A Comparison of Two Logit Models in the Analysis of Qualitative Marketing Data", Journal of Marketing Research, 16(4), pp.533~538 (1979), JSTOR[DOI]
  26. Paul E. Green, "On the Analysis of Qualitative Data in Marketing Research", Journal of Marketing Research, 14(1), pp.52~59 (1977), JSTOR[DOI]
  27. Groves, R. M., "Nonresponse rates and nonresponse bias in household surveys", Public Opinion Quarterly, 70, pp.646~675 (2006)[DOI]
  28. Groves, R. M., "The impact of nonresponse rates on nonresponse bias : a meta-analysis", Public Opinion Quarterly, 72, pp.167~189 (2008)[DOI]
  29. Robert M. Groves, "A leverage-saliency theory of survey participation: description and illustration", Public Opinion Quarterly, 64(3), pp.299~308 (2000), Oxford University Press (OUP)[DOI]
  30. Hermann Habermann, "A Conversation with Robert Groves", Statistical Science, 32(1), pp.128~137 (2017), Institute of Mathematical Statistics[DOI]
  31. Bruce W. Hardy, "Presidential Campaign Dynamics and the Ebb and Flow of Talk as a Moderator: Media Exposure, Knowledge, and Political Discussion", Communication Theory, 19(1), pp.89~101 (2009), Oxford University Press (OUP)[DOI]
  32. Harris-Kojetin, B., "Exploring the relation of economic and political conditions with refusal rates to a government survey", Journal of Official Statistics, 15, pp.167~184 (1999)
  33. Hedges, L. V., "Fixed-and random-effects models in meta-analysis", Psychological Methods, 3(4), pp.486~504 (1998)
  34. Richard Hendra, "Rethinking Response Rates: New Evidence of Little Relationship Between Survey Response Rates and Nonresponse Bias", Evaluation Review, 43(5), pp.307~330 (2019), SAGE Publications[DOI]
  35. Hillygus, D. S., "The evolution of election polling in the United States", Public Opinion Quarterly, 75, pp.962~981 (2011)[DOI]
  36. Hmielowski, J. D., "Communication behaviors during presidential elections : An examination of time, Events, and battleground states", Public Opinion Quarterly, 84, pp.309~331 (2020)[DOI]
  37. Keeter, S., "Gauging the impact of growing nonresponse on estimates from a national RDD telephone survey", Public Opinion Quarterly, 70(5), pp.759~779 (2006)[DOI]
  38. Keeter, S., "The Palgrave Handbook of Survey Research", pp.373~381 (2018), Palgrave Macmillan
  39. Guido Knapp, "Improved tests for a random effects meta-regression with a single covariate", Statistics in Medicine, 22(17), pp.2693~2710 (2003), Wiley[DOI]
  40. Konstantopoulos, S., "The Handbook of Research Synthesis and Metaanalysis", pp.245~279 (2019), Russell Sage Foundation
  41. Leeper, T. J., "Where have the respondents gone? Perhaps we ate them all", Public Opinion Quarterly, 83, pp.280~288 (2019)
  42. Luiten, A., "Survey Nonresponse Trends and Fieldwork Effort in the 21st Century : Results of an International Study across Countries and Surveys", Journal of Official Statistics, 36, pp.469~487 (2020)
  43. Christopher Prosser, "The twilight of the polls? A review of trends in polling accuracy and the causes of polling misses", Government and Opposition, 53(4), pp.757~790 (2018), Cambridge University Press (CUP)[DOI]
  44. Raudenbush, S. W., "Hierarchical linear models: Applications and data analysis methods" (2002), Sage
  45. Singer, E., "Toward a benefit-cost theory of survey participation : Evidence, further tests, and implications", Journal of Official Statistics, 27, pp.379~392 (2011)
  46. Eleanor Singer, "The Use and Effects of Incentives in Surveys", The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 645(1), pp.112~141 (2013), SAGE Publications[DOI]
  47. Jason Turcotte, "All the Polling (Data) That’s Fit to Print? An Analysis of Online News Coverage of 2016 Primary Polls", Communication Research Reports, 34(3), pp.191~200 (2017), Informa UK Limited[DOI]
  48. Sean Jeremy Westwood, "Projecting Confidence: How the Probabilistic Horse Race Confuses and Demobilizes the Public", The Journal of Politics, 82(4), pp.1530~1544 (2020), University of Chicago Press[DOI]
  49. Williams, D., "Trends in US face-to-face household survey nonresponse and level of effort", Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology, 6, pp.186~211 (2018)[DOI]

관련 논문AI추천

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (3건)