미․중 간 신형대국관계는 지속 가능한가?
A New Type of Great Power Relationship between China and US, and Its Sustainability
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Starting in 1972, the most prominent features of Sino-U.S relationships have concerned the complex structure of cooperation and conflicts of coexistence in the international system. In this study, I examine those features of a new type of profound relationship under the power transition rising in China and declining in the U.S and Japan. The medium-term implication of this new relationship is optimistic in balancing the gap of power between the U.S and China, because of China's aiming to obtain a G2 position based on cooperation rather than conflict. However, in the view of the Neoclassical Realism, the long-term prospects of the new relationships between China and U.S, are pessimistic since when Chinese leaders judge that the status quo in the East Asian region has been achieved, they can pursue their own hegemony. At that time, not only the international system variables but also domestic politics as intervening variables(nationalism, the deconcentration of decision-making, leaders perceptions) will play a role which can have an effect on Chinese diplomatic strategy. If the above variables are maximized, the relationships between China and U.S can move from cooperation to conflict. Consequently, it will be difficult to sustain any new type of profound relationship between China and the U.S.
Abstract
Starting in 1972, the most prominent features of Sino-U.S relationships have concerned the complex structure of cooperation and conflicts of coexistence in the international system. In this study, I examine those features of a new type of profound relationship under the power transition rising in China and declining in the U.S and Japan. The medium-term implication of this new relationship is optimistic in balancing the gap of power between the U.S and China, because of China's aiming to obtain a G2 position based on cooperation rather than conflict. However, in the view of the Neoclassical Realism, the long-term prospects of the new relationships between China and U.S, are pessimistic since when Chinese leaders judge that the status quo in the East Asian region has been achieved, they can pursue their own hegemony. At that time, not only the international system variables but also domestic politics as intervening variables(nationalism, the deconcentration of decision-making, leaders perceptions) will play a role which can have an effect on Chinese diplomatic strategy. If the above variables are maximized, the relationships between China and U.S can move from cooperation to conflict. Consequently, it will be difficult to sustain any new type of profound relationship between China and the U.S.
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