미-중 관계의 진화(進化): ‘전략적 경쟁’ 단계로의 진입?
US-China Relations Viewed in Three Different Time-Frames - More toward Strategic Competition?
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본 연구는 학술적으로나 정책적으로 한반도와 한국에 있어 가장 중요한 변수라고 할 미-중 관계를 세 가지 ‘시간'의 틀 - 개혁개방기의 30여 년, 지난 4-5년의추세, 그리고 2013년의 1년 - 을 통해 분석 및 재구성해보는 시도이다. 결론적으로미-중 관계는 향후 중, 장기적으로 “조화로운 양자관계의 필요성,” “중국의 의도(intention) 위주로 보는 전략적 경쟁,” 그리고 “미-중 간 공간 경쟁을 중심으로 한전략적 경쟁”의 세 가지 사이에서 복합적으로 구성될 가능성이 크며, 대체로 협력을 기반으로 한 경쟁에서 경쟁을 기반으로 한 제한된 협력으로 변화되고 있는 것으로 평가된다. 따라서 한국의 입장에서는 ‘상자 속에 갇힌 사고'(boxed thinking)에서 벗어나 다양한 경우의 수를 고려하고, 특히 한국의 ‘국익'에 대한 광범위한 공감대 확보를 위해 노력해야 할 것이다.
Abstract
US-China relations has no doubt become the most crucial variableaffecting the Korean Peninsula and South in particular. This study seeks toanalyze Sino-American relations from three distinct time-frames - namely,thirty-odd years of the post-Mao reform era, trends in the past 4-5 years,and the year of 2013. The study concludes that, from a mid- to long-termperspective, US-China relations are likely to be comprised of threemanifestations: cooperative bilateral relations, strategic competition basedon China's evolving intentions, and strategic confrontation based on thedwindling room for America’s maneuvering. This conclusion dictates theKoreans to get out of their conventional boxed thinking in their long-termstrategic planning, as well as to secure a wide base of support for their“national interests” more concretely defined.
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