본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

동구 체제전환국의 경제성과에 대한 문헌 연구 및 북한 관련 정책적 시사점

A Survey on Economic Performance of the Eastern Bloc after Transition and Policy Implications for North Korea

양석준|문성민
통일연구원 (YONSEI INSTITUTE FOR NORTH KOREAN STUDIES)|2013.06|통일정책연구 (Unification Policy Studies)|제22권 제1호|pp. 143-177

0

조회

0

다운로드

9

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

남북통일북한North KoreaUnificationeconomic integration경제통합체제전환성장결정요인economic transitiondeterminants of economic growth
주제분류정치외교학

초록

동구 체제전환국의 경험은 이들이 체제전환과 경제통합을 함께 추진했다는 점을 비롯해 여러 측면에서 북한의 체제전환과 남북통일에 많은 시사점을 줄 수 있다. 이러한 관점에서 본 연구는 동구 체제전환국의 경제성과에 대한 문헌 연구를 통해 몇 가지 시사점을 도출하였다. 첫째, 전환초기의 생산 감소는 생산구조 와해 등의 공급요인이 긴축정책 등의 수요요인보다 더 중요한 요인으로 분석되고 있다. 따라서 전환 초기에는 와해된 생산구조를 시장경제체제에 맞게 재정립하는 것이 중요할 것이다. 둘째, 성장세 전환을 위해서는 무엇보다 물가안정이 중요하다. 또한 물가 상승 원인이 국가별로 달랐던 점을 감안하여 북한도 통화량 증가, 환율 상승, 임금 상승 등 무엇이 주요 요인인가를 파악하고 그 대책을 마련할 필요가 있다. 셋째, 체제전환 이후 고용 감소에 따른 문제를 완화하기 위해서는 임금 하락을 용인하는 노동제도 구축을 고려할 필요가 있다. 임금이 경직적이면 실업이 늘고 사회보장비용이 커질 수 있기 때문이다. 넷째, 경제성장에 있어서 체제전환 초기에는 거시경제안정, 제도구축 등 체제전환 관련 요인이 중요하며 10년 정도가 경과한 이후에는 인적‧물적 투자, FDI 등 일반적인 성장요인이 중요한 것으로 분석되고 있다. 따라서 시기별로 초점을 달리하여 성장정책을 마련할 필요가 있다. 한편, 최근까지도 논쟁이 지속되고 있는 구조개혁 속도와 경제성장간의 관계, 경제 및 통화 통합 방안 등에 대해서는 추가적인 연구가 필요할 것이다.

Abstract

The economic transition of the Eastern Bloc has useful implications for Korea in preparing the transition of the North Korean economy and the economic integration of the Korean Peninsula. It is not only because of the heterogeneity among its members but also because of their pursuit of both economic transition and economic integration with the EU. In this sense, this study surveys the existing literature on their economic performance and draws some policy lessons. First, the transitional recession is mainly caused by supply factors, such as production chain failures, rather than by demand factors, such as fiscal tightening. Therefore, it is crucial to rebuild the production chains to support the market economy. Second, price stability plays a key part in a return to growth. When designing measures to stabilize prices, it should be considered that the causes of inflation are different from country to country, ranging from increased money supply and rising exchange rates to wage increases. Third, wage reductions can be considered to alleviate the initial decline in employment. Fourth, macroeconomic stability and economic institutions are the main determinants of growth at the beginning of the transition, while FDI and capital accumulation become important after about a decade into the transition. In light of this, it is critical to come up with ways to ensure sustainable growth. Meanwhile, further studies are needed on the relations between the pace of reform and economic growth and on the effects of economic and monetary integration, which remain as contentious issues.

참고문헌 (105)

  1. Blanchard, Olivier, "The Economics of Post-Communist Transition" (1997), Clarendon Press
  2. Transition Report. 2007, "EBRD", ~ (2010)
  3. North, Douglass C., "Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance" (1990), Cambridge University Press
  4. Roland, Gerard, "Transition and Economics: Politics, Firms, Markets" (2000), MIT Press
  5. 안예홍, "통일이후 남북한 경제통합방식에 대한 연구", 한국은행 금융경제연구, (291) (2007)
  6. 이종철, "소련 및 동구 사회주의 체제전환과 북한 급변사태의 비교 고찰 : 정권 붕괴 유형 및 시나리오를 중심으로", 신아세아, 17(3), pp.114~142 (2010), 신아시아연구소
  7. Atkeson, A., "Social Insurance and Transition", International Economic Review, 37 (1996)
  8. Babecký, Jan, "Does Reform Work? An Econometric Survey of the Reform–Growth Puzzle", Journal of Comparative Economics, 39(2) (2011)
  9. Badinger, Harald, "Growth Effects of Economic Integration", Review of World Economics, 141(1) (2005)
  10. Bancevičius, Rokas, "New EU Member States and the Euro: Economic Readiness, Benefits and Costs", Empirica, 38(4) (2011)
  11. Baumol, William J., "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-Run Data Show", The American Economic Review (1986)
  12. Beck, Thorsten, "Institution Building and Growth in Transition Economies", Journal of Economic Growth, 11(2) (2006)
  13. Behar, Alberto, "Tax Wedges, Unemployment Benefits and Labour Market Outcomes In the New EU Members", Czech Economic Review, 3(1) (2009)
  14. Berg, Andrew, "Stabilization and Transition: Poland, 1990-91", The Transition in Eastern Europe, 1 (1994)
  15. Blanchard, Olivier, "Disorganization", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(4) (1997)
  16. Boeri, T., "Institutional Determinants of Labor Reallocation in Transition", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 16(1) (2002)
  17. Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth, "Bruno, Michael", ~, pp.The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series. 1517 (1995)
  18. Buch, C., "Toward Universal Banking — Risks and Benefits for Transition Economies, Competition and Convergence in Financial Markets: The German and Anglo-Saxon Models" (1998)
  19. Calvo, Guillermo, "Exchange Rate Stabilization under Imperfect Credibility", Proceedings from IEA Conference on Open-Economy Macroeconomics (1993), McMillan
  20. Calvo, Guillermo, "Stabilizing a Previously Centrally Planned Economy: Poland 1990", Economic Policy, (14) (1992)
  21. Calvo, Guillermo, "Output Collapse in Eastern Europe: The Role of Credit", IMF Staff Paper, 40(1) (1993)
  22. Calvo, Guillermo, "From Centrally-Planned to Market Economies: The Road from CPE to PCPE", IMF Working Paper, 91(17) (1991)
  23. Campos, Nauro F., "Will the Future be Better Tomorrow? The Growth Prospects of Transition Economies Revisited", Journal of Comparative Economics, 29(4) (2001)
  24. Campos, Nauro, "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don’t and What We Should", Journal of Economic Literature, 40(3) (2002)
  25. Employment Protection Legislation and its Effect on Labour Market Performance, "Cazes, Sandrine", ILO, ~ (2003)
  26. Cerović, Božidar, "Transition and Growth: What Was Taught and What Happened", Economic Annals, 54(183) (2009)
  27. Chang, Gene Hsin, "Monetary Overhang: Do Centrally Planned Economies Have Excessive Money Stock?", Contemporary Economic Policy, 12(2) (1994)
  28. Unemployment, Restructuring, and the Labor Narket in Eastern Europe and Russia, "Commander, S.", EDI, ~ (1995)
  29. Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics in Russia, "Commander, S.", ~, pp.World Bank Policy Research Working Paper. 1167 (1993)
  30. Wage and Employment Decisions in the Russian Economy, "Commander, S.", ~, pp.World Bank Policy Research Working Paper. 1205 (1993)
  31. Disinflation in Transition Economies: The Role of Relative Price Adjustment, "Coorey, S.", ~, pp.IMF Working Paper. 138 (1996)
  32. Davis, Jason S., "Writing Sample: Uzbekistan and Other Post-Soviet Limited Reformers: The Political Economy of Exogenously-Determined Growth" (2010)
  33. De Grauwe, Paul, "International Money: Postwar Trends and Theories", OUP Catalogue, ~ (2011)
  34. De Melo, Martha, "Macroeconomic Stabilization in Transition Economies" (1997), Cambridge University Press
  35. Djankov, Simeon, "Enterprise Restructuring in Transition: A Quantitative Survey", Journal of Economic Literature, 40(3) (2002)
  36. Drabek, Zdenek, "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Stability of Trade Policy in Transition Economies", Journal of Comparative Economics, 26(4) (1998)
  37. Dragutinovic Mitrovic, Radmila, "Driving Forces of Economic Growth in the Second Decade of Transition", Economic Annals, 185 (2010)
  38. Efendic, Adnan, "Institutions and Economic Performance: An Overview of Empirical Research with the Main Focus on Transition Economies", South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 2(1) (2007)
  39. How Do Institutions Lead Some Countries To Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?, "Eicher, Theo", Institutions, Development and Economic Growth, ~ (2006)
  40. Estrin, Saul, "The Effects of Privatization and Ownership in Transition Economies", Journal of Economic Literature, 47(3) (2009)
  41. The Second Transition: Eastern Europe in Perspective, "Fabrizio, Stefania", ~, pp.IMF Working Paper. WP (2009), 09[DOI]
  42. Falcetti, Elisabetta, "Defying the Odds: Initial Conditions, Reforms, and Growth in the First Decade of Transition", Journal of Comparative Economics, 30 (2002)
  43. Falcetti, Elisabetta, "Reforms and Growth in Transition: Re-examining the Evidence", Journal of Comparative Economics, 34(3) (2006)
  44. Fialova, Kamila, "Labor Market Institutions and Their Effect on Labor Market Performance in the New EU Member Countries", Eastern European Economics, 47(3) (2009)
  45. Fidrmuc, Jan, "Mind the break! Accounting for Changing Patterns of Growth during Transition", Economic Systems, 33(2) (2009)
  46. Fischer, Stanley, "The Process of Socialist Economic Transformation", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5(4) (1991)
  47. Fischer, Stanley, "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience", The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10(2) (1996)
  48. Fischer, Stanley, "Economies in Transition: The Beginnings of Growth", American Economic Review, 86(2) (1996)
  49. Fischer, Stanley, "The Transition Economies after Ten Years", National Bureau of Economic Research, 7664 (2000)
  50. Garibaldi, Pietro, "Labor Market Institutions and Unemployment Dynamics in Transition Economies", IMF Staff Papers, 45(2) (1998)
  51. Gomulka, Stanislaw, "Polish Economic Reform, 1990-91: Principles, Policies and Outcomes", Cambridge Journal of Economics, 16(3) (1992)
  52. Grogan, L., "Growth Empirics with Institutional Measures for Transition Countries", Economic Systems, 28 (2001)
  53. Gwartney, James D., "Economic Freedom, Institutional Quality, and Cross-Country Differences in Income and Growth", Cato Journal, 24 (2004)
  54. Havrylyshyn, Oleh, "Recovery and Growth in Transition: A Decade of Evidence", IMF Staff papers, 48 (2001), IMF
  55. Fifteen Years of Transformation in the Post-Communist World, "Havrylyshyn, Oleh", The Cato Institute, ~ (2007)
  56. Havrylyshyn, Oleh, "Growth recovery in CIS Countries: the Sufficient Minimum Threshold of Reforms", Comparative Economic Studies, 50(1) (2008)
  57. Havrylyshyn, Oleh, "Growth Experience in Transition Countries 1990–1998", IMF Occasional Paper, 184 (1999), IMF
  58. Havrylyshyn, Oleh, "Institutions Matter in Transition, But so do Policies", Comparative Economic Studies, 45(1) (2003)
  59. Henrekson, Magnus, "Growth Effects of European Integration", European Economic Review, 41(8) (1997)
  60. Heybey, Berta, "The Relationship between Economic Growth and the Speed of Liberalization During Transition", Journal of Policy Reform, 3(2) (1999)
  61. Hudson, M., "Fading Baltic Miracle", The International Economy, 22(1) (2008)
  62. Transition Economies: An IMF Perspective on Progress and Prospects, "IMF", ~, pp.IMF Issues Briefs. 00 (2000), 08
  63. Jones, Jason, "Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in the Expanded EU", Atlantic Economic Journal, 39(1) (2011)
  64. The old and the New in Heterodox Stabilization Programs : Lessons from the 1960s and the 1980s, "Kiguel, Miguel A.", ~, pp.The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series. 323 (1989)
  65. Kim, Byung-Yeon, "The Income, Savings, and Monetary Overhang of Soviet Households", Journal of Comparative Economics, 27(4) (1999)
  66. Kim, Byung-Yeon, "Modeling Inflation in Poland: A Structural Cointegration Approach", Eastern European Economics, 46(6) (2008)
  67. Korhonen, Iikka, "A Vector Error-Correction Model for Prices, Money, Output and Interest Rates in Russia", Economics of Transition, 5 (1998)
  68. Kornai, János, "The Evolution of Financial Discipline under the Postsocialist System", Kyklos, 46(3) (1993)
  69. Kornai, János, "Transformational Recession: The Main Causes", Journal of Comparative Economics, 19(1) (1994)
  70. Kornai, János, "Ten Years after ‘The Road to a Free Economy’: The Author’s Self-Evaluation", Economic Systems, 24(4) (2000)
  71. The Evolution Of Monetary Policy In Transition Economies, "Kutan, Ali M.", ZEI, ~, pp.ZEI Working Paper. B99-19 (1999)
  72. A United Korea?: Reassessing North Korea Risks (Part I), "Kwon, Goohoon", ~, pp.Goladman Sachs Global Economics Paper. 188 (2009)
  73. The Unexpected Global Financial Crisis: Researching its Root Cause, "Lin, Justin Yifu", World Bank, ~ (2012)
  74. Maliszewski W. S.., "Central Bank Independence in Transition Economies", Economics of Transition, (8) (2000)
  75. 문성민, "The Effects of Inter-Korean Integration Type on Economic Performance: The Role of Wage Policy", International Economic Journal, 26(3), pp.447~470 (2012), 한국국제경제학회
  76. Nikolić, Milan, "Money Growth–Inflation Relationship in Postcommunist Russia", Journal of Comparative Economics, 28(1) (2000)
  77. North, Douglass C., "Understanding the Process of Economic Change" (2006), Academic Foundation
  78. Popov, Vladimir, "Shock Therapy versus Gradualism Reconsidered: Lessons from Transition Economies after 15 Years of Reforms", Comparative Economic Studies, 49 (2007)
  79. Próchniak, Mariusz, "Beta and Sigma Convergence in the Post-Socialist Countries in 1990-2005", National Bank Of Poland, pp.8~9 (2008)
  80. Social Capital in Transition: A First Look at the Evidence, "Raiser, Martin", ~, pp.EBRD working paper. 61 (2001)
  81. Razin, Assaf, "What Really Ails the Eurozone?: Faulty Supranational Architecture", Contemporary Economics, 6(4) (2012)
  82. Redek, Tjaša, "The Impact of Institutions on Economic Growth: the Case of Transition Economies", Journal of Economic Issues (2005)
  83. Transition and the Output Fall, "Roland, Gerard", ~, pp.CEPR discussion paper. 1636 (1997)
  84. Romer, David, "Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve", National Bureau of Economic Research, 7461 (2000)
  85. Rosati, Dariusz K., "Output Decline during Transition from Plan to Market: a Reconsideration", Economics of Transition, 2(4) (1994)
  86. Labor Market Policies and Outcomes: Cross Country Evidence for the EU-27, "Rovelli, R.", IZA, ~, pp.IZA Discussion Paper. 3161 (2007)
  87. Labour Market Developments During Economic Transition, "Rutkowski J.", ~, pp.World Bank Policy Research Working Paper. 3894 (2006)
  88. Dollarization in Transition Economies: Evidence and Policy Implications, "Sahay, Ratna", IMF, ~ (1995)
  89. Growth in the Central and Eastern European Countries of the European Union, "Schadler, Susan", ~, pp.IMF Occasional paper. 252 (2006)
  90. Stark, Manuel, "The East Asian Development State as a Reference Model for Transition Economies in Central Asia–an Analysis of Institutional Arrangements and Exogeneous Constraints", Economic and Environment Studies, 10(2) (2010)
  91. Stiglitz, Joseph E.\, "Whither Reform: Ten Years of Transition", The World Bank Economic Review (1999)
  92. Strašek, Sebastjan, "The Exchange-Rate Regime in the Transition Period", Eastern European Economics, 36(3) (1998)
  93. Svejnar, Jan, "Transition Economies : Performances and Challenges", The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 16(1) (2002)
  94. Tichit, A., "The Optimal Speed of Transition Revisited", European Journal of Political Economy, 22(2) (2006)
  95. Dollarization in Transition Economies: Evidence and Policy Implications, "Vegh C. A.. Gramont", ~, pp.IMF Working Papers. 95 (1995), 96
  96. Viner, Jacob, "The Customs Union Issue, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace" (1950)
  97. Vojinović, Borut, "Convergence Analysis among the Ten European Transition Economies", Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 50(2) (2009)
  98. Welfe, Aleksander, "Modeling Inflation in Poland", Economic Modelling, 17(3) (2000)
  99. Wolf, Holger, "Transition Strategies: Choices and Outcomes", Princeton Studies International Finance, 85 (1999)
  100. Grigory, Yavlinsky, "The Inefficiency of Laissez-Faire in Russia: Hysteresis Effects and the Need for Policy-Led Transformation", Journal of Comparative Economics, 19(1) (1994)
  101. Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, "The Uzbek Growth Puzzle", IMF Staff Papers, 46(3) (1999)
  102. Zinnes, C., "The Gains from Privatization in Transition Economies: is ‘Change of Ownership’ Enough?", International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 48 (2001)
  103. 남성욱, "3대 통일 시나리오와 통일재원", 한나라당 TF 발제문, ~ (2010)
  104. "Transition Report Database"[URL]
  105. World Bank, "World Development Indicators", ~

관련 논문AI추천

東유럽 국가들의 체제전환정책이 南 . 北韓 경제통합에 주는 시사점조명철, 한정철대외경제정책연구원 · East Asian Economic Review1999 · 제3권 제2호통일한국의 경제정책 - 거시경제 안정화문외솔, 이종규한국비교경제학회 · 비교경제연구2017 · 제24권 제2호이행기 북한의 경제정책에 대한 가상현실 분석-최근 경제개혁의 의미와 정책적 과제이영훈한국사회경제학회 · 사회경제평론2002 · 제19권 사회주의 경제개혁과 체제이행의 정치적 조건: 구소련,동유럽,중국의 경험과 북한의 이행 가능성김병연한국비교경제학회 · 비교경제연구2005 · 제12권 제2호북한의 하이퍼인플레이션과 개혁개방 전망이영훈북한연구학회 · 북한연구학회보2012 · 제16권 제2호체제전환이후 몽골의 거시경제 성과분석과 전망김홍진한국몽골학회 · 몽골학2007 · 제23호

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (10건)

박근혜정부의 대북정책: 한반도 신뢰프로세스와 정책 추진 방향박영호pp. 1-25한반도 신뢰프로세스의 이론적 접근 및 국제화 방안박인휘pp. 27-52<한반도 신뢰프로세스>를 통한 안보와 북핵문제 해결 방안한용섭pp. 53-77시장화시기 북한 주민의 일유형 결정요인김화순pp. 79-112북한 경제난의 인구학적 영향과 경제에의 함의문경연, 김판석pp. 113-141
원문 보기