체제전환이후 몽골의 거시경제 성과분석과 전망
Macroeconomic Performances and Prospects for Mongoliaafter the Transformation to Market Economy
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This study reviews the macroeconomic performances of Mongolian economy after the transformation to market economy, such as economic growth, employment, inflation, and financial market, and addresses some policy suggestions for the management of macroeconomic policy targets. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Mongolia embarked on its transformation from a centrally planned economy to a market－based system in the early 1990s. Mongolia, like many other former socialist economies, experienced a painful ‘transformational recession’ in the first few years during its transition before beginning to recover as a result of efficiency gains from market－oriented reforms. Mongolia’s adjustment process has been smooth compared with other transition economies and has been less costly in terms of output loss than those of countries of the former Soviet Union that have similar geographical and historical features. While Mongolia’s relatively strong output performance can be partly explained by favorable economic and noneconomic initial conditions, the early adoption of appropriate adjustment policies and market－oriented reforms is likely to have played a key role in supporting the prompt recovery of growth. Moreover, the Mongolian government made a determined macroeconomic adjustment effort to contain inflation and external imbalances, including by implementing a firm monetary policy coupled with a flexible exchange rate system. This created the conditions for a rapid expansion of trade and investment without threatening short－term macroeconomic stability. The policy recommendations of this study are as follows. First, the government should maintain the sound fiscal and monetary policy to achieve the target economic growth rate and the increase of employment. Second, the monetary authority should control the high growth rate of money supply, so as to lower the inflation rate and stabilize the economy. On the same time, the authority should lower the interest rate of loan to encourage the investment.
Abstract
This study reviews the macroeconomic performances of Mongolian economy after the transformation to market economy, such as economic growth, employment, inflation, and financial market, and addresses some policy suggestions for the management of macroeconomic policy targets. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Mongolia embarked on its transformation from a centrally planned economy to a market－based system in the early 1990s. Mongolia, like many other former socialist economies, experienced a painful ‘transformational recession’ in the first few years during its transition before beginning to recover as a result of efficiency gains from market－oriented reforms. Mongolia’s adjustment process has been smooth compared with other transition economies and has been less costly in terms of output loss than those of countries of the former Soviet Union that have similar geographical and historical features. While Mongolia’s relatively strong output performance can be partly explained by favorable economic and noneconomic initial conditions, the early adoption of appropriate adjustment policies and market－oriented reforms is likely to have played a key role in supporting the prompt recovery of growth. Moreover, the Mongolian government made a determined macroeconomic adjustment effort to contain inflation and external imbalances, including by implementing a firm monetary policy coupled with a flexible exchange rate system. This created the conditions for a rapid expansion of trade and investment without threatening short－term macroeconomic stability. The policy recommendations of this study are as follows. First, the government should maintain the sound fiscal and monetary policy to achieve the target economic growth rate and the increase of employment. Second, the monetary authority should control the high growth rate of money supply, so as to lower the inflation rate and stabilize the economy. On the same time, the authority should lower the interest rate of loan to encourage the investment.
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