Changing the Fuel Price to Reduce CO2 Emissions from Car Travel : How Big is the Policy Impact?
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Road transport is one of the key sectors in which policy change is needed in order to meet the reduction target for CO2 emissions set under the Kyoto Protocol. This paper analyzes the impact of a fuel tax on CO2 emissions from car travel. A partial adjustment model, which has been widely used in empirical studies, is applied to simulate trends of vehicle mileages and CO2 emissions under different fuel tax policy scenarios. The parameters of the models are based on short-run and long-run elasticity suggested in the literature. According to the results, to increase the fuel price gradually through a strong fuel tax policy up to a 100% higher level than the current fuel price over 30 years would result in the reduction of CO2 emissions from car traffic by 34% compared to the current level. The reduction of CO2 is caused by a decrease in car traffic, which would decline by 18% over 30 years, as well as by a decrease in fuel intensity, which would decline by 19% over 30years. Changes in vehicle mileages are further decomposed into direct effects and rebound effects. In contrast, to reduce the fuel price gradually by 50% over 30 years through a tax relief policy would lead to a 24% increase in CO2 emissions from the current level over 30 years. Low fuel prices would lead to higher vehicle mileage, up by 13%, as well as to higher fuel intensity, up by 10%.
Abstract
Road transport is one of the key sectors in which policy change is needed in order to meet the reduction target for CO2 emissions set under the Kyoto Protocol. This paper analyzes the impact of a fuel tax on CO2 emissions from car travel. A partial adjustment model, which has been widely used in empirical studies, is applied to simulate trends of vehicle mileages and CO2 emissions under different fuel tax policy scenarios. The parameters of the models are based on short-run and long-run elasticity suggested in the literature. According to the results, to increase the fuel price gradually through a strong fuel tax policy up to a 100% higher level than the current fuel price over 30 years would result in the reduction of CO2 emissions from car traffic by 34% compared to the current level. The reduction of CO2 is caused by a decrease in car traffic, which would decline by 18% over 30 years, as well as by a decrease in fuel intensity, which would decline by 19% over 30years. Changes in vehicle mileages are further decomposed into direct effects and rebound effects. In contrast, to reduce the fuel price gradually by 50% over 30 years through a tax relief policy would lead to a 24% increase in CO2 emissions from the current level over 30 years. Low fuel prices would lead to higher vehicle mileage, up by 13%, as well as to higher fuel intensity, up by 10%.
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