Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on Highway Travel Demand in Korea
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We investigate the effects of oil price changes on highway travel demand using Korean monthly data and time series analysis. In detail, we examine if oil price elasticities for the highway travel demand when oil prices are high are less than those when they are low. In order to find this asymmetry, we use the monthly numbers of vehicles and vehicle-kilometers in the first type car from January 2000 to December 2008 provided by the Korea Expressway Corporation. We use monthly oil prices as a key explanatory variable and also control other explanatory variables such as real gross domestic product, length of highways adjusted by lane, and so on. We run unit root test for non-stationarity and cointegration test among them for long-run relationship. We estimate them using autoregressive distributed lag model and error correction model. Based upon the analysis, we can say that there are asymmetric effects of oil price changes when oil prices are low or high. The agents to use private cars in the highway when oil prices are low from January 2000 to June 2004 responded more sensitively than when oil prices are high from July 2004 to December 2008.
Abstract
We investigate the effects of oil price changes on highway travel demand using Korean monthly data and time series analysis. In detail, we examine if oil price elasticities for the highway travel demand when oil prices are high are less than those when they are low. In order to find this asymmetry, we use the monthly numbers of vehicles and vehicle-kilometers in the first type car from January 2000 to December 2008 provided by the Korea Expressway Corporation. We use monthly oil prices as a key explanatory variable and also control other explanatory variables such as real gross domestic product, length of highways adjusted by lane, and so on. We run unit root test for non-stationarity and cointegration test among them for long-run relationship. We estimate them using autoregressive distributed lag model and error correction model. Based upon the analysis, we can say that there are asymmetric effects of oil price changes when oil prices are low or high. The agents to use private cars in the highway when oil prices are low from January 2000 to June 2004 responded more sensitively than when oil prices are high from July 2004 to December 2008.
참고문헌 (24)
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