북한의 경제발전전략 70년의 회고와 향후 전망

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to look to the future with a brief summary and evaluation on the way walked during the last 70 years in North Korean Economy after the Korean peninsula divided. However, for lack of space, this paper will focus on challenges of national economic development strategy, as well as evaluation and prospects in this global context. The original form of North Korea’s economic development strategy was completed in 1960, the Cold War era, since then a slight deformation and discoloration but the basic framework has been maintained. But most of this strategy came from the former Soviet Union, Stalin’s industrialization or economic development strategy model. North Korea modified the existing economic development strategy and developed the first opening policy towards the Western world on the background of East-West detente in the early and mid 1970, but while this policy were to fail soon return to the traditional strategy of self-reliance. Since the 1990s North Korea were to meet serious economic crisis due to the collapse of the socialist bloc are difficult to adhere to traditional economic development strategy, tried to enlarge the limited reform and opening policy. If we focused on the direction of change, that is, look at the long-term perspective, North Korea is going to see that swept the world in a large wave of post-socialism or transition toward market economy as well as in China and Vietnam. On the contrary, if we are focused on the width, depth, rate of change, that is, look in the short to medium term perspective, that North Korea may be seen as contrary to the great world-historical wave, that is post-socialism or transition, or left behind long in that flow. This trend is unlikely to change significantly the future. North Korea’s future economic development strategy still seems to have managed to stay in the prop (muddling through). But the move to slightly improve the economic development strategy can be continued. And a full-scale reform and opening policy still requires a lot of time. Just very carefully and in a limited degree, movements seeking to expand the reform and opening policy is expected to continue for the time being.