재․보궐선거의 정치적 비중 차이가 투표율과 선거결과에 미치는 영향
Differences of Political Weight among Re- and By-Elections and Their Impacts on the Turnouts and Outcomes
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본 연구는 전국선거와 재․보궐선거의 정치적 비중 차이로 인하여 발생하게 되는 선거 과정과 결과상의 특징들이 재․보궐선거 내의 정치적 비중이 차이를 보일 경우에도 동일하게 적용되어 나타나고 있는지를 살펴보고 있다. 구체적으로 본 연구는 재․보궐선거 내에서도 얼마나 많은 수의 재․보궐선거가 동시에 실시되는지, 지역주의가 존재하지 않는 곳에서 실시되는 재․보궐선거의 수가 얼마나 되는지, 그리고 전국선거를 얼마나 앞두고 재․보궐선거가 실시되는지를 통하여 재․보궐선거의 정치적 비중을 파악하고 있다. 그리고 이와 같은 재․보궐선거의 정치적 비중이 투표율과 여당의 승리 여부로 파악되는 선거결과에 어떠한 영향을 미치는가를 분석하고 있다. 연구결과, 재․보궐선거의 정치적 비중 차이는 투표율과 선거결과에 통계적으로 유의미한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
It is not difficult to see that the turnouts of re- or by-elections are generally low compared to national elections. In addition, it is commonly accepted that the candidates of ruling party are frequently facing an uphill battle at the re- and by-elections. These political phenomena occur because national elections and re- and by-elections differ in their political weight in the eyes of the general electorates. With these findings in mind, this study is aimed at analyzing whether or not differences of political weight among re- and by-elections in Korea have significant impacts on their turnouts and outcomes. This study measures the differences of political weight among re- and by-elections based on the following three criteria: 1) How many re- and by-elections took place at the same time? 2) How many re- and by-elections were held at the districts that were not influenced by regionalism? 3) How close from the upcoming national election day when the re- and by-elections took place? Utilizing the aggregate data about the re- and by-elections in Korea since the democratization, this study finds that the turnouts and outcomes of re- and by-election in Korea vary significantly in accordance with the differences of their political weight.
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