라틴아메리카 지역에서 대통령 지지율의 거시경제적 결정요인에 대한 연구
A Study on Macroeconomic Determinants of Presidential Popularity in Latin America
0
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables on Presidential approval ratings (popularity) in Latin America based on economic voting theory. In this study, the panel linear model is set as the basic equation for its analysis. In this analysis, the popularity of 18 presidents in Latin America using Latinbarometro data was employed as a dependent variable. GDP growth rate, GDP per capita growth rate, unemployment rate, consumer price rate, government expenditure, and misery index (unemployment rate + consumer price rate) were used as explanatory variables. The results of this study were confirmed to be consistent with the results of previous studies. In Latin America, the president’s approval ratings have proven to be closely linked to economic growth. As GDP and GDP per capita increase, the popularity of the president increases. Government spending is also closely related to the approval rating of the president in Latin America. In contrast, the unemployment rate has been proven to have a negative impact on the popularity of the president in Latin America. One of the important results identified in this study is that the effect of consumer prices on the approval rating of the president is minimal in Latin America. The results are consistent with previous studies. Finally, this study examined the possibility of the misery index as a comprehensive economic indicator that determines the popularity of the president. As a result, it can be confirmed that the misery index has a sufficient possibility as a representative economic variable affecting the approval rating of the president. The results have shown that the misery index and the popularity of the president are very closely related.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables on Presidential approval ratings (popularity) in Latin America based on economic voting theory. In this study, the panel linear model is set as the basic equation for its analysis. In this analysis, the popularity of 18 presidents in Latin America using Latinbarometro data was employed as a dependent variable. GDP growth rate, GDP per capita growth rate, unemployment rate, consumer price rate, government expenditure, and misery index (unemployment rate + consumer price rate) were used as explanatory variables. The results of this study were confirmed to be consistent with the results of previous studies. In Latin America, the president’s approval ratings have proven to be closely linked to economic growth. As GDP and GDP per capita increase, the popularity of the president increases. Government spending is also closely related to the approval rating of the president in Latin America. In contrast, the unemployment rate has been proven to have a negative impact on the popularity of the president in Latin America. One of the important results identified in this study is that the effect of consumer prices on the approval rating of the president is minimal in Latin America. The results are consistent with previous studies. Finally, this study examined the possibility of the misery index as a comprehensive economic indicator that determines the popularity of the president. As a result, it can be confirmed that the misery index has a sufficient possibility as a representative economic variable affecting the approval rating of the president. The results have shown that the misery index and the popularity of the president are very closely related.
참고문헌 (35)
- Anderson, "Post-Socialist Democratization : A Comparative Political Economy Model of the Vote for Hungary and Nicaragua", Electoral Studies, 22(3), pp.469~484 (2003)
- Arce, Moises, "Political Violence and Presidential Approval in Peru", The Journal of Politics, 65(2), pp.572~583 (2003)
- Benton, Allyson Lucinda, "Dissatisfied Democrats or Retrospective Voters? Economic Hardship, Political Institutions and Voting Behavior in Latin America", Comparative Political Studies, 38(4), pp.417~442 (2005)
- Brophy-Baermann, Michelle, "Economics and Elections : The Mexican Case", Social Science Quarterly, 75(1), pp.125~135 (1994)
- Buendia, Jorge, "Economic Reform, Public Opinion and Presidential Approval in Mexico, 1988-1993", Comparative Political Studies, (5), pp.566~591 (1996)
- Campello, Daniela, "It’s the (World) Economy, Stupid! International Determinants of Presidential Success", IPES - International Political Economy Society, pp.1~26 (2012)
- Canton, Dario, "Economic Evaluations, Partisanship and Social Bases of Presidential Voting in Argentina, 1995 and 1999", International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 14(1), pp.413~427 (2002)
- Chappell, Henry W., "Economic Performance, Voting, and Political Support: A Unified Approach", Review of Economics and Statistics, 72, pp.313~320 (1990)
- Dominguez, Jorge, "Shaping Mexico’s Electoral Arena: The Construction of Partisan Cleavages in the 1988 and 1991 National Elections", The American Political Science Review, 89(1), pp.34~48 (1995)
- Ferreira, Alex Luiz, "Personal Charisma or the Economy? Macroeconomic Indicators of Presidential Approval Ratings in Brazil", EconomiA, 14(3-4), pp.214~232 (2013)
- Germano, Roy, "Migrants’ Remittances and Economic Voting in the Mexican Countryside", Electoral Behavior, 32(4), pp.875~885 (2013)
- Geys, Benny, "The Political Cost of Taxation : New Evidence from German Popularity Ratings", Electoral Studies, 27(4), pp.633~648 (2008)
- Johnson, Gregg, "Economic Accountability in Central America", Journal of Politics in Latin America, 1(3), pp.33~56 (2009)
- Johnson, Gregg, "Repudiating or Rewarding Neoliberalism? How Broken Campaign Promises Condition Economic Voting in Latin America", Latin American Politics and Society, 52(4), pp.1~24 (2010)
- Kelly, Jana, "Counting on the Past or Investing in the Future? Economic and Political Accountability in Fujimori’s Peru", The Journal of Politics, 65(3), pp.864~880 (2003)
- Kim, Young-Tae, "Economic Conditions and Popularity of Political Parties and President : After the 17th Presidential Election in Korea", The Korean Association of Party Studies, 4(2), pp.149~172 (2005)
- "The Economy and Presidential Approval, available at SSRN" (2012)[URL]
- Kramer, Gerald, "Short-term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896-1964", The American Political Science Review, 65(1), pp.131~143 (1971)
- Informe Latinobarómetro 2016, "Latinobarometro", Latinobarometro, 1~76 (2016)
- Lewis-Beck, Michael S., "Economic Voting in Latin America : A General Model", Electoral Studies, 32(3), pp.489~493 (2013)
- Mcavoy, Gregory E., "Stability and Change: The Time Varying Impact of Economic and Foreign Policy Evaluations on Presidential Approval", Political Research Quarterly, 59(1), pp.71~83 (2006)
- Nadeau, Richard, "National Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections", The Journal of Politics, 63(1), pp.159~181 (2001)
- Nadeau, "The Chavez Vote and the National Economy in Venezuela", Electoral Studies, 32(3), pp.482~488 (2013)
- Oganesyan, Rafael, "Economic Voting in the Developing World" (2014), University of Nevada
- Panzer, John, "The Role of Economic Issues in Elections: The Case of the 1988 Chilean Presidential Referendum", Public Choice, 71(1, pp.2) (1991), 51~59
- Remmer, Karen L., "The American Political Science Review", 85(3), pp.777~800 (1991)
- Roberts, Kenneth M., "Party Systems and Electoral Volatility in Latin America : A Test of Economic, Institutional and Structural Explanations", American Political Science Review, 93(3), pp.575~590 (1999)
- 신계균, "미국 대통령 선거와 경제투표 : 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008년 분석", 한국정치학회보, 43(4), pp.231~253 (2009), 한국정치학회[DOI]
- Singer, Matthew M., "Economic Voting in an Era of(Non)Crisis : The Changing Electoral Agenda in Latin America 1982-2010", Comparative Politics, 45(2), pp.169~185 (2013)
- Heterogeneous Economic Voting: Evidence from Latin America 1995-2005,” Paper prepared for the Latin American World Association for Public Opinion Research, "Singer, Matthew M.", ~ (2010)
- Singer, Matthew M., "Context Counts: The Election Cycle, Development, and the Nature of Economic Voting", The Journal of Politics, 75(3), pp.730~742 (2013)
- Stokes, Susan, "Economic Reform and Public Opinion in Peru, 1990-1995", Comparative Political Studies, 29(5), pp.544~565 (1996)
- Vartanian, Pedro Raffy, "Determinantes Macoeconomicos da Popularidade do Presidente da Republica: Uma Analise sob a Optica dos Ciclos Politicos Eleitorais (2003-2010)", Revista de Economia Mackenzie, 9(2), pp.39~64 (2012)
- Weyland, Kurt, "A Paradox of Success? Determinant of Political Support for President Fujimori", International Studies Quarterly, 44(3), pp.481~502 (2000)
- Weyland, Kurt, "Economic Voting Reconsidered: Crisis and Charisma in the Election of Hugo Chavez", Comparative Political Studies, 47(7), pp.822~848 (2003)