NDC 목표달성과 국가 에너지시스템에 미치는 영향 분석
Nationally Determined Contributions Target Achievement and Its Impact on National Energy System
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본 연구는 원전감축과 국가 자발적 기여의 감축목표인 Business As Usual 대비 37%의 온실가스 감축을 달성 하였을 경우 예상되는 효과를 Global Change Assessment Model을 이용하여 분석하였다. 원전감축 시나리오의 경우, 화석연료 발전의 증가로 CO2 배출량이 6.9% 증가하였다. CO2 감축 시나리오의 경우, 석탄발전량은 52% 감소와 재생 에너지 발전량 증가가 예상되며, 최종부문에서는 2010년 불변가격기준 약 13 billion dollars의 감축비용이 발생할 것 으로 나타난다. 원전과 CO2 동시 감축 시나리오는 균형 CO2 가격 상승으로 인해 발생한 상호작용으로 감축비용은 29.7% 상승하고 화석연료와 재생에너지의 대체가 가속화된다. 최종에너지 소비부문에서 주목할 부분은 산업부문의 연료소비(Energy Use)와 원료용 에너지(Feedstock) 소비의 감소가 약 14% 예상된다는 점이다.
Abstract
This study analyzes the anticipated effects of achieving 37% of GHG reduction by 2030, which is the Nationally Determined Contribution target of Korea and the nuclear downsizing plan using Global Change Assessment Model. The simulation result shows that CO2 emission is expected to increase by 6.9% due to increased fossil fuel power generation for Nuclear Downsizing Scenario. For Abatement Scenario, CO2 abatement cost is expected to be 13 billion 2010 constant dollars in final energy consumption sectors while coal power generation is expected to be reduced by 52%. Finally, the result of the combined scenarios of nuclear downsizing and CO2 abatement shows that the abatement cost is increased by 29.7% while it accelerates the substitution of fossil fuels for renewable energy sources. It is noted that final energy consumption of industrial sector is expected to decline by about 14% due to reduced consumption of energy use and feedstock.
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