GCAM을 이용한 부문별 한계저감비용곡선 도출
Derivation of Sectoral Marginal Abatement Cost Curves using GCAM
1
조회
0
다운로드
3
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
본 연구에서는 GCAM기반 한계저감비용곡선을 도출하여, 국내의 자발적 온실가스 감축목표가 에너지시스템에 미치는 영향을 분석하고, 더불어 통상의 한계저감비용곡선에서 발생하는 문제점에 대해 논의하였다. 분석 결과, 전체 배출 저감량 중 발전 부문의 석탄기술이 38.9%, AgLU(Agriculture and Land Use) 부문이 28.4%를 차지하였다. 건물, 산업 부문에서 전력을 사용하는 기술에서 높은 배출저감 잠재력을 보이지만, 그 한계저감비용은 다소 높은 것으로 나타났다. 대부분 유류를 사용하는 수송 부문의 경우, 비교안에서 급격한 유류 소비가 감소하여 해당기술의 절반이상이 음의 한계저감비용으로 나타났다. 음의 한계저감비용에 대한 문제점은 이미 많은 선행연구에서도 지적되었던 바, 본 연구에서도 세부 기술별 한계저감비용곡선을 도출하는 경우 이러한 문제가 발생함을 다시 한 번 확인하였다.
Abstract
This paper discusses the impacts of domestic emission reduction target or INDC(Intended Nationally Determined Contribution) on energy technology choices using GCAM-based MACC. With the introduction of 25.7% carbon cap to reference case, results obtained for carbon emission reductions by coal generation technologies and AgLU(Agriculture and Land Use) sector are 38.9% and 28.4%, respectively, showing 67.3% of the total target. For building and industrial sector, technologies using electricity show higher emission reduction potential with relatively higher MACs(Marginal Abatement Costs). For the case of transportation sector, many technologies show negative MAC due to the rapid decrease in oil liquids consumptions, resulting in the negative emission abatement. Referring to the negative MAC discussed in earlier studies, this study also confirms that this type of problem can occur in the derivation of technology-detailed MACC.
참고문헌 (29)
- Böhringer, C., "Integrated Assessment of Energy Policies: Decomposing Top-Down and Bottom-Up", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 33(9), pp.1648~1661 (2009)
- Brenkert, A. L., "Model Documentation for the MiniCAM", Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 1~69 (2003)
- Brown, M. A., "Market failures and barriers as a basis for clean energy policies", Energy Policy, 29(14), pp.1197~1207 (2001)
- EIA, "Updated capital cost estimates for electricity generation plants", U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis, U.S. Department of Energy, 7~8 (2010)
- "EPSIS" (2016)[URL]
- IPCC, "AR5:3 climate change 2014: mitigation of climate change", pp.249~ (2015), Cambridge University Press
- Marginal abatement cost curves for policy making–expert-based vs model-derived curves, "Kesicki, F.", Energy Institute, University College London, 1~8 (2010)
- Marginal abatement cost curves:Combinding Energy System Modelling and Decomposition Analysis, "Kesicki, F.", Energy Institute, University College London, 11~ (2013)
- Kim, S.H., "The objects Framework for integrated Assessment:Hybrid Modeling of Transportation", The Energy Journal, 27(Special), pp.63~91
- KTDB, "2014 Korea Transportation Statistics", Korea Transport Data Base, 81~83 (2015)
- Kyle, P., "The Value of Advanced End-Use Energy Technologies in Meeting U.S. Climate Policy Goals", The Energy Journal, 21(1), pp.61~88 (2011)
- Levihn, F., "On the problem of optimizing through least cost per unit, when costs are negative: Implications for cost curves and the definition of economic efficiency", Energy, 114, pp.1155~1163 (2016)
- McFarlanda, J. R., "Representing energy technologies in top-down economic models using bottom-up information", Energy Economics, 26(4), pp.685~707 (2004)
- 2002 Energy Consumption Survey, "MCIE", Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy, 525~668 (2003)
- 2005 Energy Consumption Survey, "MCIE", Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy, 529~957 (2006)
- Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy: Version 2 of the Global Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curve, "McKinsey & Company", McKinsey & Company, 1~192 (2009)
- Preemptive response to the new climate system, ｢2030 Strategy for the diffusion of new energy industries｣- 5 years basic plan for achieving the future vision of 2030, "Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy", Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, 1~27 (2015)
- Strategy for the development of clean energy technology to cope with climate change and create new industry(plan), "Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy", Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, 10~ (2016)
- 2008 Energy Consumption Survey, "MKE", Ministry of Knowledge Economy, 359~682 (2009)
- 2011 Energy Consumption Survey, "MKE", Ministry of Knowledge Economy, 379~682 (2012)
- The 2nd national energy master plan, "MOTIE", Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, 33~34 (2014)
- 2014 Energy Consumption Survey, "MOTIE", Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, 407~478 (2015)
- The 7th basic plan of long-term electricity supply and demand (2015-2029), "MOTIE", Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, 2~77 (2015)
- Ponz-Tienda, J. L., "The Problem of ranking CO2 Abatement Measures: A Methodological Proposal", Sustainable Cities and Society, 26, pp.306~317 (2016)
- UNFCCC, "Intended Nationally Determined Contribution:Submission by the Republic of Korea", United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1~4 (2016)
- Van Vuuren, D. P., "The representative concentration pathways: an overview", Climatic Change, 109, pp.5~31 (2011)
- Wing, I. S., "The synthesis of bottom-up and top-down approaches to climate policy modeling: Electric power technology detail in a social accounting framework", Energy Economics, 30(2), pp.547~573 (2008)
- Long-Term US Industrial Energy Use and CO2 Emissions, "Wise, M. A.", Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 2~34 (2007)