중국 국력 성장과 동아시아 해양 분쟁의 격화 가능성: 남중국해, 대만해협, 동중국해를 중심으로
The Rise of China and the Prospects for Maritime Disputes
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중국 국력의 급격한 성장은 중국과 주변국간 해양 분쟁에 어떤 영향을 미치게 될까하는 것은 국제정치학 초미의 관심사였다. 중국과 주변국과의 영토분쟁과 관련하여 일부 학자들은 중국과 인접 국가들 간의 밀접한 경제적 상호의존 관계가 영토분쟁이 심각한 위기로 악화되지 않도록 조절하는 기능을 할 것이라는 낙관론을 내놓는다. 반면, 비관론자들은 중국의 성장과 군사력 강화는 주변 국가들과의 긴장 수위를 높이고, 결국 현상타파를 위한 중국의 무력 사용 가능성도 배제할 수 없다고 본다. 본 논문은 대만과의 양안문제, 일본과의 동중국해 갈등, 그리고 남중국해 분쟁과 관련하여 지난 20년간 중국이 보여준 급속한 경제성장과 군사력 발전에도 불구하고 중국의 무력사용에 의한 급격한 기존 영토문제의 변화는 없을 것이라는 전망을 내놓는다. 근거는 주변 국가들이 자신들만의 국방력이나 지리적 이점을 이용해 영토분쟁에 대한 중국의 일방적 무력행사를 방어할 능력이 있으며, 아직 미국은 중국보다 군사력에 있어 우월한 동시에 이 지역에서 역외균형자로서의 역할을 확고히 하고 있고, 중국 역시 이를 잘 인지하고 있기에 무력사용에 소극적일 것이기 때문이다. 하지만, 이 글은 중국은 기존 방식대로 점진적으로 영유권 확장을 시도할 것을 전망한다. 양안문제에서는 대만의 독립 시도를 좌절시키고자 하는 억지력 강화에 초점을 맞출 것이고, 군사력을 계속 증진해 나갈 것이며, 남중국해에서는 계속해서 점진적 팽창을 시도할 것이다.
Abstract
China has territorial disputes over Taiwan, the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, and islands throughout the South China Sea. The rise of China and its implications for maritime disputes across its neighboring seas are one of the most frequently debated topics in international relations. Realists argue that China is likely to assert claims over disputed islands more aggressively and will be willing to use force to settle disputes on its terms. Liberal institutionalists assert that growing economic interdependence in the region will prevent China from disrupting the status quo. This paper argues that China is unlikely to use force to take disputed islands for three reasons. First, China is not militarily strong enough to do so. Second, the U.S. commitment to protecting the status quo is robust. Third, China understands that it is not ready to flex its muscles.
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