미·러 핵 경쟁의 관점에서 본 탈냉전기 러시아의 핵무기 현대화와 핵정책 변화
Russia’s Post-Cold War Readjustment of Nuclear Policy and Nuclear Modernization Efforts: An Analysis from the Perspective of the U.S-Russian Competition over Nuclear Superiority
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
미국과 상호확증파괴(MAD)에 기초한 이른바 ‘공포의 균형’을 이루고 있음에도 불구하고, 탈냉전기 러시아는 핵무기 현대화를 추진하는 동시에 핵무기 운용에 대한 정책을 지속적으로 조정해오고 있다. 핵 억지력을 갖추고 있고 전략무기 감축을 위한 New START를 체결했음에도 불구하고 핵능력의 고도화를 추구하는 이유는 무엇일까? 주요 연구들은 탈냉전기 러시아의 핵정책 변화와 핵무기 현대화를 푸틴 개인의 호전적 성향이나 소련 제국의 영향력 복권을 위한 시도라는 국내정치적 요인에서 그 동기를 찾는다. 본 연구는 개인 또는 국내정치 변수보다는 미·러간 ‘핵 우위 경쟁’이라는 요인을 강조함으로써 핵을 둘러싼 국제정치의 현실에 대한 이해에 기여하고자 한다. 이를 위해 먼저 핵 강대국들의 행동을 설명할 수 있는 이론적 입장들을 검토한다. ‘핵 혁명학파,’ ‘핵 군축학파,’ 그리고 ‘핵 우위-경쟁학파’ 각각의 전제와 주장에 대한 검토를 통해 냉전기 미·소 간 핵 경쟁의 역사적 실체가 ‘핵 우위-경쟁학파’의 관점으로 잘 설명될 수 있으며, 이는 탈냉전기에도 유효할 것으로 가정한다. 이어서 핵 우위 확보를 위한 4가지 전략을 제시하고, 이를 바탕으로 탈냉전기 미·러 간 핵 우위 경쟁 구도와 러시아의 핵무기 현대화 노력 및 핵무기 사용 조건과 관련된 정책 간의 인과관계를 추적한다. 구소련의 해체에 따른 탈냉전기의 도래가 양국 간 핵 경쟁의 해소를 의미한 것은 아니었다. 탈냉전기 미국은 핵 우위 달성을 목적으로, NATO 확장과 연계한 MD 체계 구축 그리고 대군사타격(counterforce) 역량 강화를 두 개의 축으로 하는 ‘피해축소(damage limitation)’ 전략을 펼쳐왔다. 탈냉전기 러시아의 핵 정책 변화와 극초음속 무기 개발로 대표되는 핵무기 현대화 노력은 미국의 피해축소 전략으로 인해 약화된 핵 억지력을 보장하고, 나아가 상대적 핵 우위를 달성하기 위한 노력에 다름 아니다. 요컨대 안보딜레마에 기초한 핵 경쟁이 러시아의 핵능력 고도화와 정책 변화를 추동하고 있다.
Abstract
This study aims to underscore that Russia’s nuclear strategy and modernization efforts should be understood in the perspective of great-power competition over nuclear superiority. The collapse of the Soviet Union did not necessarily lead to the end of nuclear competition. On the one hand, the U.S. cornered Russia by pushing NATO eastward and expanding the scope of missile defense. Economic downturn sapping conventional military power, coupled with the perceived NATO threat, compelled Russia to abandon its no-first-use policy and declare its willingness to use nuclear weapons even against conventional attacks. At the same time the U.S. has opted for “damage limitation” strategy in a bid to maintain nuclear superiority whose two major prongs are missile defense and counterforce capability. Russia’s readjustment of its nuclear policy and renewed effort to modernize nuclear arsenal are largely driven by its resolve to counter American efforts undermining its nuclear deterrence and challenge America’s nuclear superiority. Great-power nuclear competition fueled by security dilemma has not gone away and is likely to remain.
참고문헌 (76)
- Adler, Emanuel, "The Emergence of Cooperation: National Epistemic Communities and the International Evolution of the Idea of Nuclear Arms Control", International Organization, 46(1) (1992)
- Antonenko, Oksana, "Russia, NATO and European security after Kosovo", Survival, 41(4) (1999)
- "“Mutual Deterrence” Speech by Sec. of Defense Robert McNamara" (1967)[URL]
- The Kosovo Crisis: The End of the Post–Cold War Era, "Arbatov, Alexei G.", The Atlantic Council of the United States, ~ (2000)
- "U.S. Nuclear Modernization" (2022)[URL]
- "The European Phased Adaptive Approach at a Glance" (2019)[URL]
- "Pentagon Shifts Gears on Missile Defense" (2013)[URL]
- "Basic Principles of the State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence. 2020. (Указ Президента Российской Федерации от 02.06. г. № 355)" (2020)[URL]
- "Russia’s State Armament Programme 2017: a more measured course on procurement" (2018)[URL]
- "Bush Announces U.S. Intent to Withdraw From ABM Treaty" (2002)[URL]
- "On the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2020"[URL]
- Bowen, Andrew, "Russian Armed Forces: Military Modernization and Reforms", Congressional Research Service. July 20, ~ (2020)
- Bukkvoll, Tor, "Why Putin went to war: ideology, interests and decision-making in the Russian use of force in Crimea and Donbas", Contemporary Politics, (2233) (2016)
- "Nuclear Notebook: Nuclear Arsenals of the World"[URL]
- "The Creation of SIOP-62" (2004)[URL]
- "2010 Russian Military Doctrine" (2010)[URL]
- Counterforce: locating and destroying weapons of mass destruction, "Chandler, Robert W.", INSS, ~, pp.INSS Occasional Paper 21 (1998)
- Congressional Research Service, "Russia", CRS Issue Brief for Congress. September 25, ~ (2001)
- Dvorkin, Vladimir, "Brief Commentary on the Termination of the Nunn-Lugar Program", Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. June 2, ~ (2015)
- Episkopos, Mark, "Russia Confirm Avangard Missile System Falls Under New START", The National Interest. January 27, ~ (2021)
- "Russian Military Doctrine, November 1993"[URL]
- Feiveson, Harold, "The Freeze and the Counterforce Race", Physics Today, 36(1) (1983)[DOI]
- Missile Defense: Delivery Delays Provide Opportunity for Increased Testing to Better Understand Capability, "GAO", ~, pp.GAO-19-387 (2019)
- Gomez, Eric, "Why Putin is obsessed with America’s missile defense", National Interest. March 3, ~ (2018)
- Green, Brendan, "The MAD Who Wasn’t There: Soviet Reactions to the Late Cold War Nuclear Balance", Security Studies, 26(4) (2017)
- Gutfeld, Arnon, "The return of Russia under Putin", Strategic Assessment, 10(4) (2008)
- Hildreth, Steven A., "Long-Range Ballistic Missile Defense in Europe", Congressional Research Service. September 23, ~ (2009)
- Hill, Fiona, "Putin: The one-man show the West doesn’t understand", Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72(3) (2016)
- "Robert S. McNamara: January 21, 1961 – February 29, 1968"[URL]
- Kile, Shannon N., "Trends in world nuclear forces, 201", SIPRI Fact Sheet. July, ~ (2017)
- Kolkowicz, Roman, "The Soviet Calculus of Nuclear War" (1986), U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information
- Kristensen, Hans, "Status of World Nuclear Forces" (2021), Federation of American Scientists
- Kristensen, Hans, "Nuclear Notebook: United States Nuclear Forces", ~ (2020)
- Jervis, Robert, "The utility of nuclear deterrence", International Security, 13(2) (1998)
- Jervis, Robert, "The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution: Statecraft and the Prospect of Armageddon" (1989), Cornell University Press
- Lieber, Keir A., "The Myth of the Nuclear Revolution: Power Politics in the Atomic age" (2020), Cornell University Press
- Lieber, Keir A., "The new era of counterforce: Technological change and the future of nuclear deterrence", International Security, 41(4) (2017)
- Lieber, Keir A., "The end of MAD? The nuclear dimension of US primacy", International Security, 30(4) (2006)
- Lily, Bilyana, "Russian Foreign Policy toward Missile Defense: Actors, Motivations, and Influence" (2014), Lexington Books
- Maddock, Shane J., "Nuclear Apartheid: The Quest for American Atomic Supremacy from World War II to the Present" (2010), University of North Carolina Press
- Mathers, Jennifer G., "Nuclear Weapons in Russian Foreign Policy: Patterns in Presidential Discourse 2000–2010", Europe-Asia Studies, 64(3) (2012)
- Maurer, John D, "Competitive Arms Control: Nixon, Kissinger, and Salt, 1969-1972" (2022), Yale University Press
- Maurer, John D., "The Purposes of Arms Control", Texas National Security Review (2018)
- Maurer, John D., "The Forgotten Side of Arms Control: Enhancing U.S. Competitive Advantage, Offsetting Enemy Strengths" (2018), War on the Rocks
- Mearsheimer, John J., "Playing With Fire in Ukraine", Foreign Affairs (2022)
- Mearsheimer, John J., "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics" (2001), WW Norton & Company
- "U.S. Cold War Nuclear Target Lists Declassified for First Time"[URL]
- Norris, Robert S., "NRDC Nuclear Notebook: Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces", Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (1998)
- Osborne, Samuel, "Russia calls Romania a ‘clear threat’ and Nato outpost for hosting US missile shield", Independent. February 9, ~ (2017)
- Person, Robert, "What Putin fears most", Journal of Democracy, 33(2) (2022)
- Pifer, Steven, "Arms Control, Security Cooperation, and U.S.-Russian Relations" (2017), Brookings Institution
- Pifer, Steven, "The Next Round: The US and Nuclear Arms Reductions after New START" (2010), Brookings Institution
- Pires, Fernanda, "Putting Putin in his place: A dictator at war", University of Michigan News. March 4, ~ (2022)
- Podvig, Pavel, "Russia’s current nuclear modernization and arms control", Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, 1(2) (2018)
- "Nuclear Damage Limitation In An Era Of Great Power Competition" (2020)[URL]
- Rief, Kingston, "Biden continues Trump nuclear funding", Arms Control Association (2021)
- Roth, Andrew, "Putin threatens US arms race with new missiles declaration", The Guardian. March 1, ~ (2018)
- Sagan, Scott D., "SIOP-62: The nuclear war plan briefing to President Kennedy", International Security, 12(1) (1987)
- Sakwa, Richard, "Putin’s leadership: Character and consequences", Europe-Asia Studies, 60(6) (2008)
- Sergeev, Igor, "The Foundations of Military–Technical Policy of Russia in the Beginning of the XXI Century", Red Star. December 9, ~ (1999)
- Sokov, Nikolai, "The New, 2010 Russian Military Doctrine: The Nuclear Angle" (2010), Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey
- "Russia’s 2000 Military Doctrine" (1999)[URL]
- The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, "National Security Concept of the Russian Federation" (2000)
- The White House, "U.S. Missile Defense Policy: A Phased, Adaptive Approach for Missile Defense in Europe", ~ (2010)
- "President Obama Speaks on Missile Defense in Europe" (2009)[URL]
- "U.S.-Russia Strategic Framework Declaration" (2008)[URL]
- Trachtenberg, Marc, "The Influence of Nuclear Weapons in the Cuban Missile Crisis", International Security, 10(1) (1985)
- Treisman, Daniel, "Putin Unbound: How Repression at Home Presaged Belligerence Abroad", Foreign Affairs (2022)
- Report on Nuclear Employment Strategy of the United States, "U.S. Department of Defense", ~ (2013)
- U.S. Department of Defense, "New START Treaty", ~ (2021)
- Nuclear Posture Review 2018, "U.S. Department of Defense", The Office of the Secretary of Defense, ~ (2018)
- White, Stephen, "The Putin Phenomenon", Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, 24(4) (2008)
- Woolf, Amy, "Russia’s Nuclear Forces: Doctrine and Force Structure Issues", Current Politics and Economics of Russia, (4) (1997)
- Russian national security policy in 2000, "Wallander, Celeste A.", Program on New Approaches to Russian Security, Davis Center for Russian Studies, Harvard University, ~ (2000)
- Walt, Stephen, "Liberal Illusions Caused the Ukraine Crisis", Foreign Policy (2022)
- Zaloga, Steven J., "The Kremlin’s Nuclear Sword: the Rise and Fall of Russia's Strategic Nuclear Forces 1945-2000" (2000), Smithsonian Institution