미.러 군비통제 사례 분석과 전망 - 군비통제 이론을 중심으로 -

Abstract

This study attempts to forecast the possibility of future U.S.-Russia arms control by theoretically analyzing successful cases of U.S.-Soviet arms control during the Cold War, at a time when the arms race is accelerating due to the recent unstable international situation. Professor Patrick Morgan is an American scholar who studies arms control. He assumed that the interest in and possibility of arms control between hostile countries, like the reason for the arms race, is essentially due to the anarchic structure of the international system. Based on his opinion, Nam Man-gwon theorized and presented several conditions for the possibility of arms control. Accordingly, the author attempted to predict the possibility of future U.S.-Russia arms control by analyzing arms control cases in the arms race during the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union using a theoretical approach. Amid the recent war between Russia and Ukraine and the realignment of the power structure by major powers, the United States and Russia withdrew from the INF Treaty in 2018, and Russia postponed the implementation of New START in 2023. As some say that a new Cold War era has recently arrived, it is meaningful to analyze the arms control case between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, which is considered the most successful in the history of the Cold War. This study has limitations in that it only forecasts the possibility of U.S.-Russia arms control in the current international situation, but based on historical cases, it provides direction on how the relationship between the two countries should be drawn for arms control and provides new research. It will be able to provide a useful basic foundation for promotion.