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핵의 관점에서 본 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁

Russia-Ukraine War: An Analysis from the Perspective of Nuclear Competition

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한국세계지역학회 (The Korean Association Of Area Studies)|2022.12|세계지역연구논총 (The Korean Journal of Area Studies)|제40권 제4호|pp. 53-83|DOI 10.29159/KJAS.40.4.3

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러시아-우크라이나 전쟁Russia-Ukraine War전술핵tactical nuclear weapons핵군축핵경쟁위기격상nuclear competitionnuclear escalationnew nuclear age
주제분류정치외교학

초록

‘핵’이라는 렌즈로 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁을 들여다보면, 전형적인 안보딜레마의 논리에 의해 추동되는 핵경쟁이 전쟁의 전, 중, 후를 관통하고 있다는 것이 드러난다. 탈냉전기 미국은 유럽 내 피해축소 전략의 주요 수단인 MD 체계를 구축하며 핵우위를 달성을 추구하였으며, 이를 위협으로 여긴 푸틴은 핵무기현대화와 핵억지 범위의 확대로 대응했다. 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁은 그러한 핵경쟁의 구도에서 벌어졌다. 군사력의 열세를 극복하고 우위를 달성하는 방법의 하나는 핵무기 사용에 대한 강력한 결기를 드러내는 것이다. 푸틴은 핵위협과 공포심에 의존하는 ‘위기조성(risk manipulation)’ 전략을 바탕으로 우크라이나의 영토를 침공하였다. 한편, 러시아의 주권 침해에 대한 미국의 응징은 핵위기 격상에 대한 우려로부터 자유롭지 않았다. 결과적으로, 이번 전쟁은 미･영･러가 서명한 1994년 부다페스트 양해각서가 공수표에 불과함을 드러내고 전술핵을 이용한 제한된 핵전쟁의 가능성을 확산시킴으로써 국제 핵질서에 중대한 부정적 영향을 미치고 있다. 이렇듯 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁은 (1) ‘비확산’에서 ‘경쟁’으로의 핵패러다임 변화, (2) 핵군축레짐의 후퇴, (3) 미･중･러 3자 핵경쟁 구도의 형성으로 특징지어지는 ‘새로운 핵 시대’의 서막을 열고 있다.

Abstract

When we approach Russia-Ukraine War with the perspective of nuclear competition, relentless competition, driven by typical security dilemma, to achieve nuclear superiority is found to be strongly implicated before, during, and after the war. After the post-Cold War order emerged, the U.S. attempted to gain nuclear superiority over Russia by establishing theater missile defense system across Europe. Threat perception coming from the fear of its nuclear deterrence being undermined by America’s damage limitation strategy forced Russia to modernize its nuclear forces and extend the scope of nuclear deterrence to include the possible use of nuclear weapons even against conventional attacks. While Putin raising the prospect of using nuclear weapons invaded Ukraine, the U.S. response seemed to be constrained by the fear of nuclear escalation. Russia-Ukraine War has found 1994 Budapest Memorandum to be nothing more than empty statements and has awakened the world to the reality that nuclear threats are actively being used as a tool of intimation and escalation management. As such, Russia-Ukraine War has ushered us into “New Nuclear World” characterized by (1) the nuclear paradigm shift from non-proliferation to nuclear competition, (2) retreat of nuclear arms control regime, (3) and tripolar (U.S., Russia, and China) nuclear dynamics.

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