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러ㆍ우 전쟁 이후 한ㆍ유라시아 무역패턴 분석 - 우회수출을 중심으로 -

Analysis of Korea-Eurasia Trade Patterns after the Russia-Ukraine War

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러・우 전쟁 발발 이후 한국 정부는 국제사회의 대러시아 제재에 동참하게 되었다. 이 연구는 한국의대러시아 제재가 수출에 어떠한 영향을 미쳤는지, 제재 하에서 한국과 러시아 간 우회무역이 이루어지고있는지 등을 파악하고자 하였다. 러시아 외에 제재 우회무역국으로 여겨지는 아르메니아, 카자흐스탄, 키르기스스탄, 타지키스탄 등의 유라시아 국가들을 분석 대상으로 선정하였으며, 비교군 국가로 몽골, 튀르키예 등을 추가하였다. 2017년부터 2024년 상반기까지 한국과 대상 국가와의 월별 수출 데이터를이중차분법(DID)으로 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 한국과 러시아 간 우회무역이 발생하고 있으며, 주로 유라시아 국가를 통해서 나타났다는 점이 확인되었다. 그리고 기존 한국의 대러시아 수출이 유라시아 국가를통한 우회수출로 부분적으로 대체된 것으로 보이며, 서방의 수출도 일부 대체한 것으로 판단된다.

Abstract

After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine War, the Republic of Korea joined the international community’s sanctions against Russia. Financial sanctions were adopted in February 2022, and export controls were announced three times as of August 2024. This study aimed to determine how Korea’s sanctions against Russia affected exports, whether circumvention trade was taking place between Korea and Russia under the sanctions, and if so, what patterns there were. In addition to Russia, Eurasian countries such as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan considered to be intermediators, are included in the analysis, and Mongolia, Turkey, Serbia, and Malaysia are added as a comparison group. Monthly export data from 2017 to the first half of 2024 by HS code 6-unit are examined with difference in difference (DID) estimation. The findings are interpreted that roundabout trade between Korea and Russia occurred mainly through Eurasian countries, and Korea’s exports to Russia have been partially replaced by intermediated exports through Eurasian countries and possibly substituted West’s exports to Russia.

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