북핵문제와 6자회담: 전개과정, 평가 및 과제

Abstract

This article closely examines the backgrounds and the process of the second North Korean nuclear crisis, focusing around the changing position of North Korea and the U.S., and the policy of the Roh Moo-hyun government. Then it attempts to evaluate the Six-Party Talks and the North Korea policies of the Roh government and thereafter the article presents the tasks that the Lee Myung-bak government confronts while looking out on the future phases of North Korean nuclear issue development. The Six-Party Talks have brought not only a progress in the peaceful resolution to the North Korean nuclear problem, but also a significant change to the foreign policies of participating nations and to the Northeast Asian order. These Talks have shown that mutual understanding and reasonable and reciprocal solutions based on simultaneous actions are wiser than just mere pressure, even on ‘rogue states’ of weaker power, such as North Korea. The U.S. have tried to pressure North Korea by forming a 5:1 structure through the Six-Party Talks; however they were nonetheless limited to their own actions as well. In addition, the Northeast Asian multilateral security cooperation is also on the move, with the progress of the Talks. The engagement policy of the Roh government exposed its limits, as it could not consequently deter the nuclear experiments of North Korea; however the main reason that led to such ineffectiveness is in the fact that the U.S. simultaneously operated a hard-line policy towards North Korea. So therefore, the engagement policy of other nations combined with the hard-line policy of the U.S. has driven North Korea to show reckless determination. Meanwhile, when North Korea will meet the needs of the nuclear declaration and disablement that the U.S. asked for, will ultimately connect to when the U.S. administration will submit the report for the removal of North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. In other words, whether or not North Korean nuclear issue will progress further in the future depends on the concurrency of actions both from North Korea and the U.S. The mid to long term development scenarios of North Korean nuclear issue divide into the Iraqi type, the Pakistani type, the muddling-through type, or complete denuclearization. The South Korean government, however, should actively induce North Korea to give up its nuclear programs. The government needs to make an effort to achieve the Ukraine scenario. To do so, the government must strive to engage in a multi-dimensional diplomatic efforts promote active, creative and practical North Korea policy take all possible measures to inspect North Korean nuclear facilities, and prepare the construction of a peace regime in the Korean Peninsula and meanwhile, must make efforts to apply Mutual Threat Reduction and Cooperative Threat Reduction on North Korea.