북한 핵문제와 다자주의적 접근의 유용성
North Korean Nuclear Issue and the Effectiveness of Multilateral Approaches
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초록
북한 핵시설의 해체를 위한 지난 20년간의 대북협상, 전략 등에 대한 경험적 연구를 통해서, 북한이 핵프로그램을 포기하지 않을 것이라는 점을 명백하게 알 수 있다. 김정일 정권은 대외개방보다는 국가 핵능력 강화에 초점을 맞추어, 강하고 안정적인 국가를 건설하기를 원한다. 이 논문은 북한 핵사안을 다루는데 다자주의적 접근법이 보다 효과적이고 필요하다는 점을 주장하고 있다. 이를 위해 6자회담, 동북아시아에서의 다자간 지역안보대화의 강화, 동북아시아에서의 국제기구나 지역기구의 활성화, 신뢰구축조치와 군비통제레짐의 확립 등을 제안한다. 다자주의적 접근법으로서 6자회담은 만일 북한이 비핵화를 위한 6자회담의 목표를 흐리지만 않는다면, 북한 핵무기 해체를 다루는 가장 중요한 수단이다. 동북아 협력대화, 동북아다자안보대화와 같은 다자주의적 대화도 필요하다. 북한 핵문제를 다루기위한 다자주의적 접근법으로서 아세안지역포럼과 아태안보협력이사회도 유용할 것이다. 유엔, NATO, EU, 유럽안보협력기구 참여국들과의 협력도 필요할 것이다. 결국 북한은 동북아시아에서의 신뢰구축조치와 군비통제레짐의 설립에 참가하여야 할 것이다.
Abstract
Throughout empirical studies on North Korean negotiating behavior, strategy, intentions during 20 years' negotiations for the dismantlement of North Korean nuclear facilities, it is apparent that North Korea will not abandon its nuclear program if left unconstrained. Kim Jong-il might want to create a strong and stable nation by focusing on national nuclear strength, instead of opening the door to the world. This paper argues that multilateral approaches will be effective and necessary to deal with the North Korean nuclear issue. For this approach, continuation of the six-party talks, enforcement of the regional multilateral security dialogues in Northeast Asia, revitalization of the international organizations and regional organizations and establishment of the confidence-building measures and arms control regime in Northeast Asia might be proposed. As a multilateral framework, the six-party talks are still very important means to deal with the North Korean nuclear dismantlement issue, even if North Korea tries to dilute the objective of the six-party denuclearization talks. Some multilateral dialogues such as the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue(NEACD) as Track II channel and the Northeast Asia Security Dialogue(NEASED) as Track I channel are also necessary. As a multilateral approach to deal with the North Korean nuclear issue, the ASEAN Regional Forum(ARF) and the Council on Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific(CSCAP) will be also useful. A cooperation with the participants of the United Nations, the NATO, the European Union and the OSCE will be necessary for the denuclearization of the North. In the long run, North Korea should participate in the process of the establishment of the confidence-building measures and arms control regime in Northeast Asia.
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