김정은 시대 북한의 대외전략 변화와 대남정책: '선택적 병행' 전략을 중심으로

Abstract

North Korea is no exception to the rule that the aims of foreign policy include national interests such as security and prosperity. After the end of the post-Cold War era, North Korea has continued to employ a foreign strategy aimed at eliciting security assurances from the U.S. and economic support from South Korea. However, despite leveraging the nuclear card to gain a security guarantee from the U.S. and bargaining with South Korea to expand inter-Korean economic cooperation, North Korea's foreign strategy aims have been frustrated. After 2009, amidst escalating tensions with the U.S. and a suspension of inter-Korean cooperation, North Korea realized that it could resolve North Korea's security issue and fulfill much of its need for economic aid by enhancing its relationship with China. In this process, North Korea began to explore new foreign strategy that selectively utilized its relations with multiple countries depending on the need and the situation in pursuit of security and economic benefits. This is evolved into a so-called strategy of 'selective parallelism' where it went between the U.S. and China for regime security and South Korea and China for economic cooperation. As part of this change, North Korea's South Korea policy is showing signs of both consistency and change. In the interests of contributing to the sustainability of its regime, North Korea has maintained relations with the South Korea in order to receive economic support and to draw support during its confrontation with the U.S. However, it appears that North Korea's South Korea policy has changed to one of 'selective parallelism between cooperation and confrontation.' This change in North Korea's foreign strategy and South Korea policy necessitates change in our North Korea policy.