미중관계의 장래와 한국 외교
The Future of U.S.-China Relations and Korea's Diplomacy
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초록
이 논문은 미중관계의 전개과정을 분석적으로 어떻게 볼 것인지 논의하고, 미래의 미중관계에 대한 한국의 대응방안을 모색한다. 우선 미중관계의 장래를 단순히 낙관론과 비관론에 의해 결정론적으로 예단하거나 과거의 외삽으로 파악해서는 안 되며, 양국관계에 영향을 미치는 대응과 대비 요인들이 단계적으로 누적되는 과정으로 파악할 필요성이 있다. 둘째, 한국과 미중관계는 전략적 삼각관계의 논리로 분석할 때, 삼자공존의 관계가 설정되어야 한다. 이를 위해 최근 논의되는 동아시아 다자주의에 한국이 적극적인 중재자 역할을 할 필요가 있다.
Abstract
This article addresses two issues; how to view U.S.-China relations in the foreseeable future, and how to shape Korea's strategy for it. First, I argue that we should not predict U.S.-China relations through optimistic/pessimistic determinism or simple extrapolation of the immediate past. Rather, we need to carefully observe factors that lead them to certain responses and preparedness against each other. The future of their relations will be shaped by the accumulation of those responses and preparedness. Second, after analysing Korea-U.S.-China relations through the logic of Dittmer's strategic triangle, I suggest that Korea should avoid ‘stable marriage’ and ‘romantic triangle,’ and try to build up ‘ménage à trois’ for the tripartite relationship. The best chance for this can be utilization of East Asian(and Pacific) multilateral cooperation.
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