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아태지역의 군사비 결정요인에 대한 시계열 횡단면 분석

Understanding the Determinants of Military Spending in the Asia Pacific: A Time-Series Cross-Section Analysis

김치욱
극동문제연구소 (THE INSTITUTE FOR FAR EASTERN STUDIES)|2012.09|한국과 국제정치 (Korea and World Politics)|제28권 제3호|pp. 159-187|DOI 10.17331/kwp.2012.28.3.006

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키워드

세력균형Balance of Power군사비군비경쟁모델시장평화론Military SpendingArms Race ModelTheory of Market Peace
주제분류정치외교학

초록

2008년 이후 지속되고 있는 미국과 유럽의 경제적 위기는 글로벌 차원뿐 아니라 아태지역에서의 세력분포 변화 여부에 대한 궁금증을 증폭시키고 있다. 이 연구는 전환기를 맞고 있는 아태지역 세력균형의 변화를 파악하기 위한 노력의 일환으로, 1970년부터 2007년까지 38개 역내국가들을 대상으로 이들의 군사비 결정요인을 시계열 횡단면 통계모델을 활용하여 분석했다. 그 결과 아태국가의 군사비는 인접국의 군비지출에 의해 유의미하고 일관되게 영향을 받는 것으로 밝혀졌다. 또한 군사비는 경제성장률과 소득 수준에 비례하는 경향을 보였으며, 경제적 개방성이 높을수록 군사비 규모가 작아지는 추세를 나타냈다. 이는 아태지역의 군사비 결정요인으로서 군비경쟁모델과 시장평화론의 설명력을 직간접적으로 입증해주는 것이다.

Abstract

The 2008 U.S. financial meltdown and the Eurozone crises are arguably reshuffling the previous distribution of power in the global and Asia Pacific contexts. Using a time-series cross-section model, this article analyzed the determinants of military spending of 38 Asia Pacific countries between 1970 and 2007 as part of the efforts to understand the regional balance of power. Main finding is that military spending in this region was significantly, consistently, and positively affected by neighboring nations’ military budgets. Also it was positively associated with the rate of economic growth and the level of income, whereas negatively related to the degree of economic openness. Thus this analysis shows that both the arms race model and the theory of market peace prove compelling in explaining the dynamics of military spending in the Asia Pacific.

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