국방지출 결정요인에 관한 연구: 민주적 책임성과 정부안정성 중심으로
The determinants of military spending: Focusing on democratic accountability and government stability
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국방지출은 다른 재정지출항목과는 대외적으로 민감한 지출항목이라는 점과 국민의 안위와 직접적으로 연관된다는 점에서 그 결정요인을 분석하고 찾아내는 것은 중요하고 의미가 있으며, 국방지출 결정요인에 관한 지식축적과 연구적 측면에서 지금까지 논의된 결정요인 이외에도 다양한 요인이 연구될 수 있다. 이에 본 연구는 다수의 연구에서 국가재정지출의 정책결정요인으로 거론되는 민주적 책임성과 정부안정성이 국방지출에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 실증적으로 고찰하여 국방지출 결정요인에 대한 이해를 높이고자 한다. 1984년부터 2013년까지 129개 국가의 패널 자료를 구축하여 분석에 사용하였으며, 국가 간 분석에서 식별될 수 있는 내생성 문제를 고려하기 위해 합동OLS와 확률효과, 고정효과 모형 결과를 제시하였다. 분석결과 민주적 책임성과 정부안정성 등 정치적 요인은 국방지출과 유의마한 음(-)의 관계가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 민주적 책임성과 정부안정성 수준이 높은 국가일수록 국방지출이 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 민주적 책임성과 보건지출 상호작용도 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 민주적 책임성과 정부안정성의 향상은 국가의 지도자나 정부 관점에서 정책추진의 정치적 제약요소 증가로 받아들여지고 국민의 요구가 반영될 개연성이 높아짐을 의미한다. 결과적으로 이는 국방지출의 감소로 이어진다. 특히, 사회지출에 대한 요구가 높은 국가에서 이러한 경향이 더 크게 나타날 것으로 예상된다.
Abstract
It is important and meaningful to analyze and find out the determinants of military spending as it is externally sensitive government spending, unlike other spending items, and directly related to the security of the people. This article aims to enhance understanding of determinants of military spending by empirically analyzing the impact of the democratic accountability and governmental stability on spending for the military using a panel of 129 countries for the period 1984-2013. I use the pooled-OLS, random-effect, and fixed-effect estimations to deal with the potential endogeneity problem. The empirical estimation result shows that the democratic accountability and government stability has have a negative sign(-) and is a are significantly related with to military spending. In other words, the countries with a high level of the democratic accountability and government stability spend less on the military than countries with a low level of the democratic accountability and government stability. Also, the interaction term between democratic accountability and health spending is significantly related with to military spending. The empirical result implies that improved democratic accountability and governmental stability are perceived to be political constraints in the policy-making process by the state's leader and policy-makers, and the demands of the people are more likely to be reflected in the policy-making process, resulting in a decrease of military spending. This trend would be especially apparent in countries with a high demand for social spending.
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