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자기회귀시차분포 모형을 이용한 한국과 일본의 군비지출 수요 분석

An Analysis on the Demand for Military Expenditure in Korea and Japan

이성훈|구영완
한국아시아학회 (The Korean Association Of Asian Studies(Kaas))|2012.10|아시아연구 (The Journal of Asian Studies)|제15권 제3호|pp. 169-188

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참고문헌

키워드

가격효과자기회귀시차분포 모형군비지출 수요일반재Military expendituresCivilian GoodsARDL Long-term and Short-tern price effect
주제분류지역학

초록

본고는 1970-2005년 기간 동안 한국과 일본의 군비지출 수요에 미치는 요소들을 자기회귀시차분포모형을 이용해 실증분석 한다. 그 결과 두 국가의 군비지출 수요에 미치는 영향이 장기와 단기 모두 다르게 나타났다. 일반재화 가격 변화의 영향은 일본의 장기에만 나타났고, 국방재화 가격 변화의 영향은 장기에는 일본에만, 단기에는 한국과 일본 모두에서 나타났다. 군비지출은 한국의 경우에는 장기와 단기 모두에 일본의 경우에는 단기에만 공공재의 성격을 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 한국과 일본의 군비지출 수요는 단기에 각각 미국의 군비지출에 편승하는 무임승차자의 모습과 미국의 군비지출을 따라 움직이는 추종자의 성격을 나타낸다.

Abstract

This empirical study examines the determinants of the demand for military expenditure in Korea and Japan using ARDL approach for the period 1970-2005. The results show that their effects in the short-term differ from those in the long-term in both countries. The long-term substitution effects of civilian goods are shown in Japan. The short-term and the long-term price effects of military goods are shown in Japan but only the short-term price effects in Korea. Military expenditures have the characteristics of public goods in Korea both in the short-term and long term while in Japan only in the short-term. Furthermore, Korea is a free rider and Japan is a follower of the United States in the short-term for the period under consideration in this study.

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