글로벌 금융위기이후 기축통화변경 가능성에 관한 연구: 유로화로의 전환가능성을 중심으로
A Study on the Possibility of the Key Currency Change into the Euro after Global Financial Crisis
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본 연구는 글로벌 금융위기이후 나타나고 있는 국제금융시장에서의 변화와 기축통화로서의 달러화의 위상변화에 따라 향후 유로화가 제1의 기축통화로서 기능할 수 있을 것인가에 대하여 분석하였다. 본 연구의 주요 분석결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 미국에서 기인한 글로벌 금융위기를 극복하기 위해 미국은 거의 무제한의 유동성 공급정책과 대규모 적자재정정책을 실시하였다. 이 과정에서 기축통화로서 달러의 위상이 크게 약화되고 있으며 상대적으로 금융위기의 피해가 적은 유로지역의 통화인 유로화는 이에 대한 대안으로 부각되고 있다. 둘째, 유로지역의 경제규모(GDP)는 미국에 버금가는 수준으로 성장하였다. 또한 교역액과 국제채권시장에서의 발행잔액 측면에서 보면 유로는 이제 달러를 능가하는 수준으로 성장하였다. 반면에 아직 외환시장에서의 거래량과 은행자산의 자산구성비 그리고 외환보유고의 통화구성비에서는 미국의 달러화가 절대적인 우위를 점하고 있다. 이는 가치저장수단으로서는 유로화가 기축통화의 기능에 상당히 근접하고 있으나, 교환의 매개기능에서 볼 때는 아직 달러화의 선점효과를 극복하지 못하고 있음을 의미하고 있다. 셋째, 19세기 후반 달러와 파운드의 주도권 경쟁과 비슷하게 향후에도 상당기간 유로화는 제1의 기축통화로서의 달러를 대체하기는 힘들 것으로 판단되나 달러와 유로 등 두 개 이상의 국제통화가 공존하면서 경쟁할 가능성이 크다
Abstract
This study investigated the changes of the status of US dollar in global financial markets after the global financial crisis, and analyzed the possibility that euro can replace the US dollar as a key currency in the long run. The main findings of this study can be summarized as follows. First, in the global financial crisis, US government limitlessly provided dollars into the turbulent markets and implemented large deficit fiscal policies in order to prevent the collapse of the global financial systems. In the process, the status of US dollar as a key currency is challenged, and the euro, which was relatively less damaged in the crisis, is recognized as an alternative. Second, the size of GDP and world trade of euro areas is compatible to the size of US. The share of euro in the outstanding balance of international bonds is above the share of US dollar. However, the US dollar is absolutely dominating over the euro in the foreign exchange transactions, the asset portfolio in bank's assets and the currency composition. It implies that the euro comes closest to challenging the dollar in its role as a store of value, but as a unit of account and medium of exchange, the dollar’s role is not as secure as it once was, but the dollar is still pre-eminent. Third, as the historic example for the fate of the US dollar and pound sterling in the late 19th century, it is highly improbable that the euro will eclipse the US dollar as key currency. Instead the international monetary geography is much more likely to evolve towards a multipolar world.
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