원화국제화: 현황, 이슈와 과제
Won Internationalization: issues, prospects and policy agenda
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글로벌금융위기는 글로벌 통화로서 미 달러화와 유로화가 주도하는 국제통화체제에서 견실한 경제기초여건과 국제투자자들의 다변화를 반영하는 신흥국 통화가 과거보다 더 중요한 역할을 수행하는 통화체제로 이행하는 가능성을 제시하였다. 실제로 일부 신흥국 국채가 중앙은행의 보유외환으로 편입되고 있으며 향후 새로운 국제통화로 발돋움하기 위하여 주요 신흥국 통화들간 경쟁이 일어날 전망이다. 중국정부가 주도하는 위안화 국제화가 대표적인 사례다. 우리나라는 아시아금융위기를 계기로 전면적인 외환거래자유화를 시행함에 따라 자본거래가 크게 늘어난 가운데 대외채무에서 차지하는 원화채권의 비중이 빠르게 증가하는 등 이미 원화국제화 추세가 일어나고 있다. 그럼에도 불구하고 국제교역규모에 비해 원화결제비중의 절대적 수준이 여전히 낮고, 최근 글로벌외환시장에서 차지하는 원화의 비중이 감소하는 가운데 역외시장에서 비거주자의 비결제선물환거래는 늘어나는 현상은 여전히 외환거래에 대한 상당한 규제가 존재하고 있음을 반영하며 원화국제화의 제약요인이다. 우리경제와 금융시장이 세계에서 차지하는 비중 등을 볼 때 현 시점에서 금융선진국과 같이 원화의 완전 국제화를 추구하는 데는 한계가 있다. 그러나 우리경제의 선진화나 자본시장개방정도, 국제교역에서 원화의 활용가능성을 볼 때 현 시점에서 적어도 부분적인 원화국제화는 추진가능하고 또한 필요하다. 원화국제화의 가능성이 낮거나 그 역기능이 우려된다는 이유로 기존 외환규제를 정당화하는 것은 온당치 못하다. 우리의 경제와 금융이 선진화될 때 원화의 국제화는 궁극적으로 우리경제를 외부의 충격으로부터 보호하는 안전판 역할을 할 수 있다.
Abstract
Since the global financial crisis emerging market currencies have become more internationalized to reflect a more diversified composition of foreign reserves in central banks including developed countries. In the near future currencies of emerging market countries will be expected to be more internationalized. RMB internationalization aggressively led by the Chinese government is a good example. KRW is not an exception. Macroeconomic stabilization since the Asian financial crisis together with capital account liberalization encourages foreign central banks and foreign institutional investors to invest won denominated treasury bonds rapidly. In spite of the fact, however, the won is rarely used in export and import payments. Furthermore, while the market share of won in the global foreign exchange market tends to decline the NDF market thrives, which implies that foreign exchange regulation is a binding constraint of won internationalization. Won may not be totally internationalized, but considering conditions for currency internationalization in general further phase of won internationalization via foreign exchange deregulation is possible and desirable. The current foreign exchange system which is built on massive foreign reserves, the macro-prudential regulation, and the foreign exchange transaction act may not be sustainable in this financially globalized world. In the end won internationalization enables Korean economy to escape from its original sin.
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