유로화의 정치경제: 유로의 국제적 역할을 중심으로
Political Economy of the International Role of Euro
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이 연구는 국제통화질서의 핵심을 형성하고 있는 달러와 유로의 정치적 및 제도적 기반을 비교함으로서 유로의 도입으로 인한 변화 또는 변화의 가능성을 분석하였다. 유로는달러와 비교했을 때 다양한 차이점을 드러내고 있다. 우선 통화정책에 있어 유럽중앙은행은 미국의 연준에 비해 훨씬 물가안정을 지향하고, 역내 경제 상황에 민감하며, 제도적으로 취약한 형편이다. 둘째 통화와 재정 정책의 조정에 있어 미국은 상당한 조율과 협력이이뤄지는데 반해 유럽에서는 통화정책만 중앙화 되어 있고, 재정 정책은 여전히 각 회원국 별로 결정되기 때문에 제대로 조화가 이뤄지지 않는다. 그만큼 두 정책 사이에 괴리가발생할 가능성이 높으며, 이는 대외적으로 예상하기 어려운 결과를 초래하기 쉽다. 마지막으로 국제통화질서에 권력을 행사하려는 정책적 의지를 비교해 보면, 여전히 미국의 헤게모니 관리적 접근과 유럽의 분열상이 대조적으로 나타난다. 유럽에서는 프랑스만이 권력의 의지를 표명하는 한편 독일을 비롯한 다른 국가들에게 유로의 국제적 역할은 부차적인결과물로 인식하는 경향이 강하다. 결국 유로는 물가안정이라는 단일목표를 지향하면서 적어도 주관적⋅의식적으로 국제적 역할을 추구한다고 분석하기는 어렵다.
Abstract
This article compares the political and institutional basis of the two major international monies, dollar and euro. What kind of change can we observe since the introduction of euro in 1999? What is the potential for change of the international monetary regime? Many differences characterize the dollar and euro regimes. First, the European Central Bank is much more oriented towards anti-inflation stance, is much more sensitive to internal economic situation, and much more fragile in terms of institutional consolidation due to her short history, compared to the Federal Reserve System of the United-States. Second, the US have better coordination and cooperation between monetary and fiscal policies, while, in Europe, only the monetary policy is centralized. For fiscal policy is still in the hands of national governments, the possibility for discrepancy between monetary and fiscal policies is rather strong and this can lead to unpredictable consequences. Third, the US are more consistent in their will to power over the international monetary order, while in Europe, only France shows such a policy intention. Germany and other members tend to consider the euro's international role as only a secondary consequence of price-stability-oriented monetary policy. Thus it is hard to say that Europe has an independent and conscious policy pursuing an international role for euro.
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