EU 가스시장 자유화와 EU의 對러시아 에너지 전략 변화
The Liberalization of the EU Gas Market and EU’s Changing Energy Strategy towards Russia
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냉전기간 동안 소련가스공급은 미국과 소련의 긴장이 고조되는 와중에도 안정적으로공급되었으며 소련과 서구국가들의 에너지 상호의존은 심화되었다. 1990년대-2000년대 EU는 EC가 중심이 되어 가스시장과 전력시장 자유화를 3단계에 걸쳐 추진하였다. 2009년을 기점으로 유럽 수출 러시아 불공정 가스 가격과 계약적 측면에서의 장기계약, 의무물량(TOP), 도착지조항 등의 특징들은 미국의 셰일가스 혁명이 상업적 생산단계로접어들면서 빠른 변화를 겪게 되었다. 시장 측면의 EU 가스시장 변화는 빠르게 이루어진 반면, EU 차원의 공동 에너지정책에 대한 EU 회원국의 입장은 상이하기 때문에 EU 회원국의 지역협력은 EU 가스 시장 통합의 장애물로 남을 것이다. 2016년 발표된 러시아-독일 정부간 노드스트림2 가스관 건설은 기존 EU가 추진하던 가스시장통합과 러시아가스의존과는 배치되는 결정이다. 러시아 시각에서 본 러시아-EU 관계의 핵심은 EU가 제기하는 에너지안보 개념이 지나치게 소비국입장의 공급안보만 강조하기 있기 때문에 러시아와 같은 공급국시각의 수요안보를 감안한 새로운 균형된 유럽에너지안보 개념의 도출이다. 저유가이후 사우디아라비아가 미국의 타이트오일 생산자와 가격과 시장점유율경쟁을 벌이고 있는 것과 같이 러시아도 유럽과 아시아에서 미국을 포함한 다수의 신규LNG 플레이어들과 시장점유율과 가격전쟁을 벌여야 할 것으로 러시아는 보고 있다.
Abstract
During the Cold War period, Soviet natural gas supply to Western Europe was stable even as US-Soviet tensions were high. In the 1990s-2000s, the European Commission pushed for the liberalization of gas market and electricity markets through three stages. The year 2009 was a turning point after which Russia’s unfair gas prices and other contractual characters such as long-term contracts, Take-or Pay, and destination clauses began to weaken with the deepening of US shale gas revolution. It is unlikely that EU member states will soon converge politically on a truly shared gas vision and integrated gas market in Europe. Russia’s strategic partners and client countries in Europe have an interest in resisting gas market integration. A case in point is the recent signing of Nordstream 2 between Russia and Germany. From Russia’s standpoint, the issue of energy security in EU–Russia energy relations is overwhelmingly oriented towards security of supply. There is a distinct lack of a conception of energy security as security of exports and demand. Gazprom might consider a strategy to flood Europe with cheap gas in 2016 to kill off U.S. LNG. Gazprom can produce and export gas to Europe at a much lower cost than LNG from across the Atlantic, and this approach would mirror Saudi Arabia’s strategy of keeping oil production elevated in order to protect market share.
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