글로벌 가스시장 변화와 러시아의 유럽 가스 수출전략 변화
Global Gas Market Changes and Shifts in Russia's Gas Export Strategy towards Europe
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본 연구는 2000년대 후반 글로벌 천연가스 시장의 중요한 3대 변화를 밝혀내고2009년 이후 유럽가스 시장의 경쟁도입과 가스허브 구축으로 인한 러시아의 독과점적수출 관행과 비즈니스 모델의 변화를 조명하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 러시아의 새로운수출전략은 가격전쟁을 통해 유럽시장점유율을 유지하고, 가스허브가 빠르게 구축되는북서부유럽의 주요 가스허브에 허브가격으로 가스를 공급하는 것이다. 아직은 미국의LNG등이 유럽으로 유입되어도 러시아의 파이프라인 가스 수출은 가격 경쟁력을 유지하고 오히려 저유가 시기에 유럽으로의 수출은 늘어나고 있다. 국내적으로 러시아는 거버넌스 재편을 통해 유럽 수출 감소를 대비해 아시아로의 새로운 파이프라인 인프라를구축해 가즈프롬이 아닌 로스네프트와 같은 신규 가스수출회사가 시장확대를 하도록 수출전략을 바꾸고 있음을 알 수 있었다. 궁극적으로 러시아는 국내 노바텍과 같은 신규 LNG 플레이어를 육성해 LNG 수출 확대를 도모하고 있다.
Abstract
This article examines three sea changes in global natural gas markets in the 2000s and Russia’s reformulation of export strategies reevaluating past monopoly/olygopoly practices and business models as a result of the introduction of competition and the emergernce of gas hubs in Europe. Russia’s new export starategies are to main export market shares through pricing war and to supply natural gas to major gas hubs in Northwest Europe. Russia’s pipeline gas maintains pricing competitive edge relative to US LNG, and therefore has increased its exports to Europe under low oil prices. Regarding domestic governance, Russia is also preparing to increase gas exports to Asia through non-Gazprom players such as Rosneft. Over the long term, Russia seeks to break into the LNG export market by supporting Novatek, a new LNG player.
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