유럽 민주주의의 역진(逆進)?: 유럽통합의 삼각 딜레마(trilemma)와 민주주의의 퇴조 경향
Democratic Backsliding in Europe?: the Trilemma of European Integration and the Declining National Democracies
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본 논문은 전 세계적인 차원에서 민주주의의 퇴조 경향이 나타나고 있음을 지적한 민주주의의 역진(逆進, democratic backsliding) 또는 탈공고화(deconsolidation)론의 맥락에서 2000년대 이후 유럽 민주주의의 퇴조 경향을 추적하고, 유럽통합의 삼각 딜레마(trilemma)라는 관점에서 그 구조적 요인을 조망한다. 개별 국가의 민주주의 정도를측정한 ‘민주주의 척도’(democracy barometer) 데이터를 기준으로 볼 때, 유럽연합 회원국의 민주주의는 국가별 편차에도 불구하고 집합적인 수준에서 2000년도 이후 지속적인 퇴조 경향을 보여 왔다. 이는 유럽 민주주의의 퇴조 경향을 추동하는 구조적 요인이 작동하고 있음을 보여주는 것인데, 이는 유럽통합의 삼각 딜레마라는 차원에서 조망해 볼 수 있다. 삼각 딜레마론은 경제통합, 국가 자율성, 민주주의 중 두 가지만을 동시에 달성할 수 있다는 것으로 요약된다. 유럽통합을 특징짓는 초국가주의는 국가 자율성을 제약하는 효과를 갖는 반면, 경제통합을 상수로 전환함으로써 삼각딜레마를 국가 자율성과 민주주의 사이의 양자택일 문제로 단순화하는 효과를 낳는다. 유럽의 경제통합은 초국가주의와 국가 자율성의 결합을 통해 심화되어 왔는데, 이러한 결합은 민주주의의퇴조 경향을 추동하는 구조적 요인으로 작동한다. 특히 유로존 위기 이후 재정정책 분야에서 국가 자율성과 초국가주의의 병치가 제도화되면서 유럽 민주주의의 퇴조 경향이심화되는 결과를 낳았다.
Abstract
This study first confirms empirically the tendency of democratic backsliding or deconsolidation in Europe using the Democratic Barometer data and then explores the structural force behind it through the lens of the trilemma of European integration. The essence of democratic backsliding or deconsolidation argument lies in that democracy declines in both new and established democracies alike since the 21st century. Democracy Barometer data provide continuous measure of national democracies along with three fundamental components: civic freedom and rights, rule of law, and representation and accountability. According to this data, the average performance of EU national democracies has declined steadily and significantly since 2000, which suggests the structural force behind it. I then attribute this general tendency to the trilemma of European integration associated with the dual effect of supranationalism. Trilemma refers to the situation in which one can enjoy simultaneously only two out of economic integration, national autonomy and democracy. Supranationalism in the European integration opens up two possibilities with respect to trilemma. To the extent that it weakens national autonomy, it may prompt the combination of economic integration and democracy whose logical corollary becomes supranational democracy. On the other hand, since it turns economic integration into a constant, not a variable, it reduces trilemma to the matter of choice between democracy and national autonomy. This suggests that national democracies should decline to the extent supranationalism goes hand in hand national autonomy. The process of European economic integration is characterized by the institutional juxtaposition of supranationalism and national autonomy, which becomes apparent in the supranationalization of monetary and financial policies accompanied by national fiscal autonomy. This institutional design, which is further intensified after the eurozone crisis, constitutes structural force behind declining national democracies
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