브렉시트의 원인으로써의 이민: 역내 노동이동은 브렉시트의 결정적인 원인이 되었는가?
Immigration and Brexit: Was the free movement of labor within the EU a decisive cause of Brexit?
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이 연구는 영국의 이민정책과 상황을 역내이민을 중심으로 고찰하고 브렉시트 국민투표 과정에서 이민 문제를 둘러싸고 전개된 논쟁을 분석하였다. 브렉시트를 둘러싼 갈등과 난민위기 및 테러사태가 같은 기간 발생한 점에 주목하고, 브렉시트 결정이 역내이민 유입을 줄이기 위한 목적에 의해 추동된 것인지를 실증분석을 통해 검토하였다. EU의 중동부유럽 확대 이후, 역내이민의 급격한 증가는 영국 사회가 갖고 있던 이민에 대한 불안감을 더욱 자극했다. 이후 이민 문제는 브렉시트 국민투표를 앞두고 EU 회원국 지위와 연계된 문제로 변화하였다. 같은 기간에 발생한 난민위기와 일부 국가에서 연쇄적 테러 사건은 이민에 대해 비우호적 환경이 형성되는 결정적 계기가 되었고, 이민과 난민문제가 중첩되는 가운데 국경통제 이슈가 브렉시트 논쟁의 전면에 등장하게 되었다. 브렉시트 국민투표 의향에 대한 결정요인을 분석한 결과 이민과 난민이슈는 잔류/탈퇴 결정에 명확한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 연령, 교육수준, 정치적 성향 등 유권자의 개인적 특성과 유럽통합에 대한 시각은 브렉시트 찬반 결정에 영향을 미치는 중요한 변수이다. 이민이 영국 경제와 문화, 사회 전반에 긍정적인 영향을 미친다고 평가하는 영국인들은 EU 잔류에 투표할 의향이 강한 반면, 반대로 평가하는 경우에는 EU 탈퇴를 투표하는 확률이 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 또한 보다 관대한 난민정책을 지지하는 영국인은 EU 잔류를 지지하는 경향이 강한데 반해, 이에 반대하는 영국인은 EU 탈퇴에 투표할 가능성이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 매우 근소한 표 차이로 EU 탈퇴가 결정되었음을 감안할 때, 실증분석 결과는 이민-난민에 관한 정치적 논쟁이 브렉시트 결과에 결정적인 영향을 미쳤음을 보여준다. 반면에 개인차원의 투표 결정이 역내노동이민의 축소라는 목적에 맞춰 이루어졌는지에 대해서는 의문의 여지가 남아있다.
Abstract
This article analyses immigration as a cause for Brexit by examining the UK’s immigration policies and circumstances of free movement of labor within the EU. It also reviews the migration-related debates in the Brexit referendum. Taking note that the refugee crisis and terrorist attacks took place alongside the escalating debates over the referendum, this study raises the following questions; was immigration the most important single cause of Brexit? Was the Brexit decision driven by the need to reduce the number of migration from the other EU countries, ending the free movement of labor within the EU? The concerns about excessive immigration had been an important issue in the UK society and the enlargement of the EU brought about an unprecedented increase in intra-EU immigration, mainly from the new member countries in the UK. Since then, immigration has been increasingly inter-related to the EU issues and the UK’s membership of the EU. The refugee crisis and a series of terrorist incidents in some countries during the Brexit debates seemed to contribute to creating an unfriendly political environment for immigration, Overlapping with the concerns over the refugee crisis and terror, the immigration issue has been increasingly linked to the need of border control in the Brexit debates. Using the European Social Survey data, this study conducted empirical analysis on whether to vote for ‘remain’ or ‘exit’ in the Brexit referendum. It shows that various individual status, such as age and education and political orientation explains well the vote for Brexit; the younger, highly educated people and politically left-inclined people have a higher possibility to vote for remain. The national and European orientation influence the Brexit decision at the individual level. The variables related to migration and refugees are also salient explanatory variables in individual decision-making to remain or exit from the EU. The support to the ‘remain’ is closely correlated to the positive perception of immigration and the support for a more generous refugee policy. From these findings, it is clear that the Brexit decision was decisively influenced by the individual perception of immigration, given that the overall result was ‘leave’ from the EU with a very narrow margin. However, it is still questionable whether the individual-level voting decision was made in line with the main Brexit argument that the UK has to reduce the number of intra-European migrants.
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