브렉시트 국민투표 결정요인 분석: 기술숙련도와 노동시장에서의 고용경쟁
Determinants of Voting Choice in Brexit Referendum: Skill Level and Job Competition in the Labor Market Park,
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본 논문은 영국인들의 브렉시트 투표 선택에 영향을 미친 요인을 규명하려는 목적을가진다. 특히 본 연구는 유럽 노동시장 통합이 개별 시민들에게 제공하는 기회와 위협에 주목하여 왜 어떤 영국인은 유럽연합 탈퇴 또는 잔류를 선택 했는지를 설명한다. 본 연구는 유럽연합 내의 노동시장 통합 과정 속에서 영국 내의 저숙련 노동자들은 고용경쟁에 내몰리게 되기 때문에 고숙련 노동자들에 비해 유럽연합에 대한 선호가 낮고결과적으로 유럽연합 탈퇴를 선택했다고 주장한다. 2013년에 행해진 ISSP의 설문조사자료를 분석한 결과 기술수준이 가장 낮은 유권자들은 기술수준이 가장 높은 유권자들에 비해 유럽연합 탈퇴를 선택할 확률이 유의미하게 높은 것으로 나타난 반면, 교육수준은 유의미한 영향력을 보이지 않았다. 이는 일부 영국인들이 유럽연합 잔류/탈퇴가가져올 결과에 대해 무지했기 때문에 유럽연합 탈퇴를 선택한 것이라기보다는 노동시장 내에서 자신의 지위를 인식하고 그 지위에 따라 느끼게 되는 효용의 크기에 따라서유럽연합 탈퇴를 선택했을 가능성 또한 높다는 것을 시사하는 결과라고 할 수 있다.
Abstract
This paper aims to explain why some british voters choose to exit from the European Union. Focusing on opportunities and threats presented by the integration of European labour market, we examine the reason behind ‘remain’ and ‘exit’ choices of British voters from the European Union. We argue that skill level of individuals matters since european labor market integration provides different incentive structure to laborers. European labor market integration pushes low-skilled laborers to harsher job competition with those of other EU member countries. Because inflow of low-skilled laborers to more affluent countries consists of those who are from the less developed countries, laborers with the lowest skill level living in affluent countries such as the UK face threats from the european integration. Using International Social Survey Programme 2013 module National Identity, we find that the lowest skill level has significant impact on voting choice: whether remain or exit from EU. This result of statistical analysis implies that some voters in the UK voted for exit because they believed that they don’t benefit from european integration, not because they are too ignorant or poorly educated to support european integration—exit voters are rational rather than ignorant.
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