‘푸틴 체제’의 현재와 러시아 정치시스템의 향후 진화 전망
The Present of ‘Putin System’ and Prospects over the Future Evolution of Russian Political System
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본 논문은 현 ‘푸틴 체제’의 정치사회 및 경제 상황들에 대한 검토를 통해, 향후 러시아 선거권위주의 체제의 진화 경로들을 시나리오화해 살피고 또 전망한다. 이에 따르면, 정치사회적 측면에서 볼 때 푸틴은 정권 혹은 자신의 권력에 위해가 가해질 수 있을 높은 강도의 정치 및 사회개혁을 추진해 나갈 동기와 유인이 현재까진 크지 않은 상태이다. 또한, 경제적 측면에서 보자면 푸틴이 기존의 선거권위주의 체제를 적극적으로 바꾸려 하지 않는 한 효과적인 경제개혁이 시도되기도 어려울 것이다. 물론 경제발전 역시 요원하다. 이러한 상황 속에서 후계자로의 완전한 권력양도 및 양두체제의 옵션들은 푸틴의 정치적 안전을 보장하기 힘들 뿐 아니라, 현재의 엘리트들 간 이해관계의 전면적인 재편을 이뤄내야 한다는 점에서도 시도되기 힘들다. 또한, 단합러시아당의 현 상태를 감안할 때 중국이나 과거 멕시코에서와 같은 일당 혹은 패권정당 모델로의 진화 역시 현실성이 많이 떨어진다. 반면, 중앙아시아식 종신집권 경로의 경우 주요 행위자인 푸틴 자신 및 엘리트층의 이해에 공히 가장 부합할 뿐 아니라, 적어도 현시점에서는 꽤 우호적인 정치사회적 조건들이 조성돼있는 상태이기도 하다. 따라서 향후 ‘푸틴 체제’의 진화 경로와 관련해 푸틴으로선 결국 또 한 번의 개헌을 통해 자신의 종신집권 시나리오를 추진해나갈 개연성이 비교적 클 것으로 전망된다.
Abstract
This paper examines and prospects four scenarios over the future evolution of Russian electoral authoritarian regime via the consideration of politico-social and economic conditions of the ‘Putin system.’ In the dimension of politico-social condition, first of all, Putin currently seems to have few incentives in pursuing political and social reforms strong enough to damage the authority of his regime or even himself. In the dimension of economic condition, moreover, a large-scale economic reform cannot be attempted for Russian economy, as long as Putin will not actively reform the current electoral authoritarian system. Thus the day when economic development begins in Russia is still far-off. In this situation, both the options of transferring power to a heir and building the 2008-style diarchy seem not to be attempted because they cannot guarantee Putin’s political safety and he has to dismantle and reorganize the distribution of power and interest among the existing core elite clans. The evolution of ‘Putin system’ to a hegemonic party system in China or Mexico in the past is also difficult, considering the current status of United Russia. In contrast, the scenario of Central Asian model allowing a dictator to rule for life can be a reasonable option for Putin now, considering that this model will serve both the two core actors, Putin himself and other power elites’ interests, and Russia still entails several politico-social conditions favorable for its achievement. Therefore, the possibility that Putin will pursue the Central Asian model through one more constitutional amendment among the above four scenarios of evolution of the ‘Putin system’ is relatively high.
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