푸틴시기 러시아의 정치체제: '푸틴주의'의 특성을 중심으로
Russian Political System in the Putin Era: With a Focus on ‘Putinism’
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본 논문은 푸틴 통치 시기 러시아의 정치체제가 ‘하이브리드 체제’이면서 동시에 러시아 고유의 특성을 갖고 있는 ‘푸틴주의’로 간주하고, 푸틴주의의 속성, 등장배경, 그리고 그 전망에 대해 논의한다. 푸틴주의는 몇 가지 속성을 갖고 있다. 첫째, 푸틴주의는 푸틴 개인의 정치적 권위와 영향력에 크게 의존하는 권위주의의 통치체제를 바탕으로 하고 있다. 둘째, 푸틴은 기본적으로 주기적 선거 등을 포함하는 절차적 민주주의의 틀을 유지해왔다. 그러나 그러한 절차적 민주주의는 종종 크렘린의 권력강화라는 목적에 의해 훼손되기도 했다. 셋째, 푸틴주의는 시장경제의 뼈대를 유지하면서도 전반적으로 경제에 대한 국가의 영향력과 통제를 강화시키는 경향이 있다. 넷째, 푸틴주의는 현상유지와 보수주의의 성격을 띤다. 다섯째, 푸틴주의는 대외정책을 권력당국의 정당성 제고에 적극적으로 활용하는 경향을 나타낸다. 여섯째, 푸틴의 러시아는 유라시아주의에 입각해 유라시아 통합을 향후 러시아 국가발전의 중심축으로 설정하고 있다. 푸틴주의는 다음과 같은 몇 가지 요소에 의해 추동되었다. 첫째, 대통령에게 권력을 집중시킨 ‘초대통령제’와 통치자를 견제하는 적절한 제도적 장치가 결여되어 있는 러시아의 정치제도이다. 둘째, 푸틴의 강력한 리더십과 국내외의 주요 사건들을 적절히 활용해 자신의 권력을 기민하게 강화시켜온 그의 책략이다. 셋째, 러시아 주변에서 일어난 ‘색깔혁명’과 서방의 대러 압박정책 등 대외적 환경을 들 수 있다. 넷째, 개인의 권리보다 국가의 힘이 더 강조되어온 러시아 정치문화를 들 수 있다. 중단기적인 관점 또는 장기적인 관점에 따라 푸틴주의의 전망이 달라진다. 첫째, 중단기적으로 볼 때, ‘푸틴주의’에 입각해 있는 러시아 정치체제는 일정한 안정성을 유지하면서 국내외 정책을 이끌고 나갈 것으로 보인다. 둘째, 중장기적으로 볼 때 푸틴주의는 혁신과 현대화를 억제시킴으로써 체제의 활력을 약화시키고, 러시아 정치와 사회에 있어서 불확실성을 초래할 가능성이 있다.
Abstract
Given that the current political system in Russia, frequently called ‘Putinitism’, is a product Vladimir Putin has been building up for nearly two decades, it is a ‘hybrid system’ containing both authoritarianism and some democratic overtone, while it is combined with unique Russian political culture and social practices. Putinism is composed of the following characteristics. First, Putinism is based on a personalistic authoritarian rule. Second, the Putin regime has maintained a facade of ‘procedural democracy’ including regular elections. Such a procedural democracy underwent, to a considerable degree, irregularities and distortions as a result of an extreme concentration of power in the hands of the Kremlin, however. Third, while keeping a frame of a market economy, the state has come to control lion’s shares of the national economy under Putinism. Fourth, the Putin regime is inclined toward conservatism and status quo policies. Fifth, the authorities have been quite acute in making use of foreign policies for the purpose of strengthening their legitimacy. Sixth, as an alternative to the Western model of development, Putin’s Russia has been striving to integrate the post-Soviet space through the embarkment of the Eurasian Economic Union based on so-called ‘Eurasianism.’ Putinism was driven by the following factors. (1) institutional arrangements in which power is concentrated on the president under the ‘super-presidentialism’ enshrined in the current Russian constitution without effective mechanisms of checks and balances on the president; (2) Putin’s strong leadership based on high approval ratings and his shrewd tactics with which major policy issues and political process have been addressed and commanded; (3) ‘color revolutions’ in neighboring countries and alledged western influences on them, which turned out to be a locomotive for mobilizing Russian people behind the Putin leadership; (4) Russian political culture in which individuals’ freedom are often overshadowed by state power. Depending on a time span, the prospects for Putinism are bifurcated. First, from a short and mid-term perspective, Putinism with a solid power based and relatively high popularities is likely to manage to deal with domestic and foreign issues with social and political stability. Second, from a long-term perspective, Putinism may arouse uncertainties in Russian political and society as a consequence of restraining competitions and openness which are a key to modernization.
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