中国人口结构变化对经济增长的影响 ——基于少子化和老龄化问题

Abstract

As China’s issues of sub-replacement fertility and an aging population intensify, the impact of population factors on the economic growth of countries and regions has become significant. This study uses change point analysis to divide the time panel data from 2002 to 2022, with 2010 as the dividing point, to separately examine the impact of dependency ratios and education on economic growth before and after 2010. The study found that before 2010, the family planning policy and the baby boom resulted in a negative impact of the child dependency ratio on economic growth, while the low birth rate and the gradual aging of the baby boom population led to a negative impact of the elderly dependency ratio on economic growth. After 2010, with the further development of the silver economy and the gradual delay of retirement age, the elderly dependency ratio began to positive impact on economic growth, but the child dependency ratio did not significantly promote economic growth. Additionally, education has consistently had a significant positive effect on economic growth. In response, the Chinese government can address the issue of low birth rate by increasing financial subsidies and tax reductions to raise the birth rate. To tackle the problem of an aging population, the government can increase labor force participation and develop the silver economy. At the same time, the significant developing high-quality education and promoting technological advancement for economic development are crucial for economic growth.