중국의 출산 정책이 거시경제 변수에 미치는 영향
Analysis of Effect between fertility policy and Macroeconomic Variables in China
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The age structure of population in China is rapidly changing after adopting the one child policy in 1979. Low birth rate means less adults of working age, which poses a threat for the country's sustainable growth in the long run. This paper analyzed the causality analysis between fertility rate and macroeconomic variables in China over the period 1982-2010. The impact of economic growth on total fertility rate is negative and statically significant in the long-run. And it is estimated short-run sequential impacts of young age ratio on economic growth, economic growth on total fertility rate, total fertility rate on government expenditure, and government expenditure on young age ratio. And the universal two-child policy will reportedly actively address the country's aging trend and potential future labor shortages due to the low birth rate in recent years.
Abstract
The age structure of population in China is rapidly changing after adopting the one child policy in 1979. Low birth rate means less adults of working age, which poses a threat for the country's sustainable growth in the long run. This paper analyzed the causality analysis between fertility rate and macroeconomic variables in China over the period 1982-2010. The impact of economic growth on total fertility rate is negative and statically significant in the long-run. And it is estimated short-run sequential impacts of young age ratio on economic growth, economic growth on total fertility rate, total fertility rate on government expenditure, and government expenditure on young age ratio. And the universal two-child policy will reportedly actively address the country's aging trend and potential future labor shortages due to the low birth rate in recent years.
참고문헌 (16)
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