中国人口负增长原因及 经济影响初探

Abstract

This study first examines the recent demographic changes in China and their causes, as well as the policies adopted by the Chinese government to address these issues. Since 2013, due to declining birth rates, China’s working- age population began to decrease, and in 2022, China experienced a population decline for the first time in 61 years. Simultaneously, with the rapid progression of aging, China entered an aging society in 2001 and an “aged society” in 2021. The decline in China’s birth rate, reduction in the working- age population, and rapid aging are primarily attributed to over three decades of the one-child policy. High housing costs, living expenses, educational expenses, and the lack of protective measures for women’s economic activities are economic constraints on childbirth. On the other hand, China’s population decline and aging not only affect the Chinese economy but also have negative effects on the global economy. These impacts include the increase in export prices of Chinese products due to rising labor costs, the acceleration of inflation in countries importing Chinese products. Moreover, Chin’s population decline induces the decrease in China’s consumer spending and the weakening momentum of the consumption-driven growth model, as well as negative effects on global brands entering the Chinese domestic market.However, experiences from different countries show that negative population growth and economic growth can coexist. The impact of negative population growth is long-term, gradual, and slow. If properly planned and actively responded to, it can sufficiently mitigate its negative effects on economic growth. South Korea, closely linked to China’s economy, needs to pay attention to the increase in labor costs, changes in consumer spending, and the policies of the Chinese government resulting from China’s population decline and aging.