중국의 인구 고령화와 경제성장 사이 관계 ― 중국 및 성(省)별 ‘인구 보너스’의 전환점을 중심으로
Population Aging and Economic Growth in China: Focusing on China’s Provincial Turning Point of ‘Demographic Bonus’
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초록
This study empirically investigates the relationship between population aging and economic growth in China and the 31 provincial regions. Moreover, this study aims to find the turning points in the overall and provincial demographic bonus. To this end, by employing the Pearson correlation estimation method, this study empirically analyzed the impact of population aging on economic growth using China and provincial-level balanced panel data from 2011 to 2020. As a result of the analysis, the proportion of the elderly population in China had a statistically significant positive effect on economic growth until 2013, and no statistically significant effect was found between 2014 and 2016. Moreover, it was found that there was a statistically significant negative correlation from the year 2017 onwards. In conclusion, it was found that the demographic bonus was an essential factor in achieving rapid growth of the Chinese economy in the past. However, the demographic bonus disappeared around 2014 due to the aging of the population. Moreover, it was found that the timing of the extinction of the demographic bonus also differed due to the difference in the level of economic and social development among the 31 provinces in China.
Abstract
This study empirically investigates the relationship between population aging and economic growth in China and the 31 provincial regions. Moreover, this study aims to find the turning points in the overall and provincial demographic bonus. To this end, by employing the Pearson correlation estimation method, this study empirically analyzed the impact of population aging on economic growth using China and provincial-level balanced panel data from 2011 to 2020. As a result of the analysis, the proportion of the elderly population in China had a statistically significant positive effect on economic growth until 2013, and no statistically significant effect was found between 2014 and 2016. Moreover, it was found that there was a statistically significant negative correlation from the year 2017 onwards. In conclusion, it was found that the demographic bonus was an essential factor in achieving rapid growth of the Chinese economy in the past. However, the demographic bonus disappeared around 2014 due to the aging of the population. Moreover, it was found that the timing of the extinction of the demographic bonus also differed due to the difference in the level of economic and social development among the 31 provinces in China.
참고문헌 (16)
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