중국의 인구 고령화가 경제성장에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증연구 ― 동ㆍ중ㆍ서부 3대 경제지역 비교를 중심으로
An Empirical Study of the Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth in China: Eastern, central and western regions of China are compared
0
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This study empirically examines the impact of population aging on economic growth in China and the eastern, central and western regions. Moreover, this study aims to estimate the magnitude of the impact. To this end, this study uses the fixed effect estimation method to estimate the Solow growth model, and empirically analyzes the impact of population aging on economic growth by constructing provincial-level panel data from 2002 to 2020. In particular, this study distinguishes the eastern, central, and western regions, and divides the analysis period into two periods, 2002-2010 and 2011-2020, for empirical analysis. The empirical results show that during the period from 2002 to 2010, the proportion of China's elderly population had no statistically significant impact on economic growth. Moreover, China’s population aging had a statistically significant negative effect on economic growth during the period 2011~2020. According to the estimate, for every 1%p increase in the proportion of the elderly population, the average annual economic growth rate will decrease by 0.61%p. Moreover, the degree of negative impact showed regional differences. The negative impact of population aging on the less developed central and western provinces is greater than that in the developed eastern provinces. To sum up, due to the population aging, China’s demographic bonus that supported economic growth in the past has turned into a demographic onus in the 2010s.
Abstract
This study empirically examines the impact of population aging on economic growth in China and the eastern, central and western regions. Moreover, this study aims to estimate the magnitude of the impact. To this end, this study uses the fixed effect estimation method to estimate the Solow growth model, and empirically analyzes the impact of population aging on economic growth by constructing provincial-level panel data from 2002 to 2020. In particular, this study distinguishes the eastern, central, and western regions, and divides the analysis period into two periods, 2002-2010 and 2011-2020, for empirical analysis. The empirical results show that during the period from 2002 to 2010, the proportion of China's elderly population had no statistically significant impact on economic growth. Moreover, China’s population aging had a statistically significant negative effect on economic growth during the period 2011~2020. According to the estimate, for every 1%p increase in the proportion of the elderly population, the average annual economic growth rate will decrease by 0.61%p. Moreover, the degree of negative impact showed regional differences. The negative impact of population aging on the less developed central and western provinces is greater than that in the developed eastern provinces. To sum up, due to the population aging, China’s demographic bonus that supported economic growth in the past has turned into a demographic onus in the 2010s.
참고문헌 (15)
- 신선희, "중국의 인구 고령화와 경제성장 사이 관계 ― 중국 및 성(省)별 ‘인구 보너스’의 전환점을 중심으로", 중국학논총, (79), pp.277~296 (2023), 중국학연구소[DOI]
- 문익준, "중국의 인구구조 변화와 지역경제성장 간의 관계:한국과의 비교", 중소연구, 40(2), pp.7~45 (2016), 아태지역연구센터[DOI]
- Barro, R. J., "Economic growth in a cross section of countries", The quarterly journal of economics, 106(2), pp.407~443 (1991)
- Barro, R. J., "Determinants of economic growth : A cross-country empirical study" (1997), The MIT Press
- Bloom, D. E., "Demographic transitions and economic miracles inemerging Asia", The World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), pp.419~455 (1998)
- Cai, F., "Beyond Demographic Dividends (Vol. 5)" (2013), World Scientific
- Cai, F., "Take-off, persistence andsustainability : The demographic factor in Chinese growth", Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies, 3(2), pp.203~225 (2016)
- India overtakes China as the world’s most populous country, "Hertog, S.", ~ (2023)
- Hu, A. G., "Population Aging, Population Growth and Economic Growth : Evidence from China′s Provincial Panel Data", Population Research, 36(3), pp.14~ (2012)
- 이근, "Firm Size and Economic Growth in China", Journal of International and Area Studies, 22(1), pp.93~112 (2015), 국제학연구소[DOI]
- Lee, K., "Big businesses and economic growth : Identifying abinding constraint for growth with country panel analysis", Journal of Comparative Economics, 41(2), pp.561~582 (2013)
- Luo, Y., "Trends and challenges for population and health during population aging—China, 2015–2050", China CDC Weekly, 3(28), pp.593~ (2021)
- Marx, K., "Marx & Engels Collected Works Vol 03: Marx and Engels: 1843-1844" (1975), Lawrence & Wishart
- Ye, J., "Is the demographic dividend diminishing in China? Evidence frompopulation aging and economic growth during 1990–2015", Review of Development Economics, 25(4), pp.2255~2274 (2021)
- Wang, G. X., "Population Aging in China and Regional Economic Growth", Chinese Journal of Population Science, (3), pp.30~42 (2017)